the working theory goes something like this:
If a POTUS election shifts such that it came down to one deciding state (like FLA in 2000 and OH in 2004) ... the one state is the pinnacle.
thus, ask yourself, in 2016, which states could be the pinnacle? not OH and not FLA. the country has shifted and OH and FLA cannot be the deciders. Not with the current paradigm. Obviously, anything can happen ... something peculiar. Walker could win Wisconsin and lose OH. but normally that scenario is out.
You are correct, Florida (which is certain to be carried by any Republican who’s winning nationwide), Ohio, and also VA are all to right of the line, we must win them all and would still narrowly lose (266) without 1 more state.
The candidates are, Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin (especially with Walker), New Hampshire (though I’m not optimistic of winning that little *bitch), and maybe Nevada (and maybe NM with Martinez as the VP). Winning multiple of those (or taking PA which is also possible) would be necessary to overcome a loss in OH or VA.
I think Walker would win Wisconsin and Iowa.