Syria Regime 'Ready to Accept De-Facto Partition'

Israel National News ^ | Sunday, May 24, 2015 | Sammy Ketz (AFP), contributions by Arutz Sheva Staff

[SunkenCiv]

Weakened by years of war, Syria's government appears ready for the country's de facto partition, defending strategically important areas and leaving much of the country to rebels and jihadists, experts and diplomats say.

The strategy was in evidence last week with the army's retreat from the ancient central city of Palmyra after an advance by the Islamic State group (ISIS or IS)...

Syria's regime labels all those fighting to oust President Bashar al-Assad "terrorists," and has pointed to the emergence of ISIS and Al-Nusra as evidence that opponents of the regime are extremists.

Since the uprising against Assad began in March 2011 with peaceful protests, the government has lost more than three-quarters of the country's territory, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitor.

But the territory the regime controls accounts for about 50 to 60 percent of the population, according to French geographer and Syria expert Fabrice Balanche.

He said 10-15 percent of Syria's population is now in areas controlled by ISIS - which geographically controls around half of the country's landmass, much of which is sparsely populated - while 20-25 percent in territory controlled by Al-Nusra or rebel groups and another five to 10 percent in areas controlled by Kurdish forces...

People close to the regime talk about a government retreat to "useful Syria"... [cities of Hama, Homs, Damascus, Latakia, Tartus] ...and the regime's last major offensive - in Aleppo province in February -- was a failure...

The shift may also be the result of the dwindling forces available to the regime, which has seen its once 300,000-strong army "whittled away" by combat and attrition... Those are approximately 175,000 men from the army, pro-regime Syrian militias and foreign fighters including Shia Islamist jihadis from Hezbollah and elsewhere.

[SunkenCiv]

Subtitled, "With its forces whittled down by years of bloody war, Assad regime 'facing facts' and pulling back to protect key areas."

Rebels now control some three quarters of Syria [Reuters]

[SunkenCiv]

Too little, too late. Syria has been prtitioned for a couple of years, at least. And btw, the uprising against Assad began in March 2011 with peaceful protests s/b the uprising began in March 2011 after the Assad regime reacted with gunfire and other violence against peaceful protests.

[goldstategop]

The regime now seeks to protect the Alawaite strongholds in the mountains and along the coast that is the core of the Assad’s regime’s Alawite base.

A shrunken Syrian army simply does not have the military manpower to reconquer the rest of the country.

[dp0622]

it was still safer for us when he had complete control of the country in my opinion. I could be wrong

[Shadow44]

Assad is a thug, but is deposing him really necessary?

When the alternative is ISIS, why is this even a question?

[goldstategop]

He is a mass murderer. The only real difference between him and Islamic State chief Baghdadi is he doesn’t personally behead his enemies.

[Jonty30]

The Islamic radicals are going for complete victory. I can’t see them wanting peace at any point.

[Shadow44]

OK, well who replaces Assad?

All this seems to be is a much slower, festering Libya. Libya doesn’t have much of a government anymore and the secularists are fighting Islamist militias.

If it was still 2011 and the Free Syrian Army was still made up of defecting military officers, I’d support a coup. Obama pissed away a perfect opportunity.

[Zhang Fei]

The regime now seeks to protect the Alawaite strongholds in the mountains and along the coast that is the core of the Assad’s regime’s Alawite base.

Map of Syria's agricultural lands, which probably overlaps considerably with its non-desert terrain:

[GeronL]

Another terrorist state, oh goody

[SunkenCiv]

His mouth wrote a check his ass couldn’t cash, so too bad for him.

Since he’s an enemy of the US, good riddance.

ISIS is one of many factions, they just happen to be good at what they do.

Instead of worrying about our enemy Assad, we should be concentrating our support on the independence of Kurdistan, as well as aid to the millions of refugees now living in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey (and in the Kurdish areas), making sure they don’t become immigrants to the US as the Demagogic Party wants.

I would like him to hang on a while yet, because all the factions are feeding themselves to each other’s guns, IOW, the best part of a muzzie civil war is, everyone wins.

[SunkenCiv]

Obama did indeed piss away an opportunity; the FSA wasn’t funded, but al-Qaeda and the many other jihadist groups (they tend to be bankrolled by this or that super-rich family that isn’t typically participating in their home nation’s regime) streams of cash, weapons, and volunteers were pretty large. What happened around FR was, the FSA was equated with al-Qaeda (IOW, the Assad party line, weird coincidence), then with al-Nusra, and lately with ISIS, and it was all nonsense.

All the jihadist groups would have a really good laugh about that equation.

Speaking of lost opportunities, here’s another possible one coming right up (but the source is Debka, so...):

Exclusive: ISIS columns heading from Syria toward Jordan, first targeting the border crossing
http://www.debka.com/article/24621/
http://beforeitsnews.com/israel/2015/05/exclusive-isis-columns-heading-from-syria-toward-jordan-first-targeting-the-border-crossing-2451522.html

[hulagirl]

I don’t understand why he is never ever quoted (in recent days) or on TV. Is he alive?

[Zhang Fei]

If you look at the map, you’ll note that Assad’s major problem is that the green (i.e. non-wasteland) areas in the north are easily supplied from Turkey, which is (of course) helping the Sunni Arab rebels, whereas they’re a long haul from the capital and even the Alawite strongholds on the coast. Assad’s disadvantages aren’t just manpower- and financial-related; they are also geographic.

[SunkenCiv]

“Death is easy as a substitute for pride.” — Genesis, ‘In the Wilderness’, from their first album

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fcBz8W2Wq9I

[SunkenCiv]

There was a recent article posted, one third of Alawite Syrian men of military age have died in the conflict.

[dp0622]

Why arent allied jets destroying these columns where they stand?

[tcrlaf]

“I would like him to hang on a while yet, because all the factions are feeding themselves to each other’s guns, IOW, the best part of a muzzie civil war is, everyone wins.”

It seems Putin agrees.
Last year they were running the “Syrian Express” with their amphib landing ships every three weeks or so. In January, they started running two ships every two weeks.

In the last month, they are now running all four of their Black Sea Fleet Amphibious Landing Ships to Syria, two at a time, around every ten days.

The stuff they are sending is all from existing inventory, so it isn’t costing them much to keep killing muzzies.

[Zhang Fei]

There was a recent article posted, one third of Alawite Syrian men of military age have died in the conflict.

That can't be right. Assuming military age is 18-55, that would mean half of the country's 1.25m Alawite men have died, or about 600K. Add in the Sunnis (assuming 1 in 3 of total regime dead) who don't want to live under an Islamist government, and we're looking at 1m dead regime troops. Seems a bit high. The regime isn't just Alawites. Plenty of Sunnis who hate Islamists.

[SunkenCiv]

There were a lot of Russian nationals living in Syria — both Russian-born muzzies who married there, and Russian Orthodox or other Russian Christians who did likewise. There were I think some evacuations, but it has been a while since the last one. Interesting that they’re running ammo down there. The longer it goes on, the more it costs Iran, Russia, the Hizzies, and Assad & co.