Posted on 05/06/2015 6:06:07 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Just something I’ve been thinking about, sitting here playing with the RSLC’s new 2016 electoral map widget and drinking heavily. “Create Your Own Path to 270 Map,” the widget beckons. Yeah, go ahead. You go find yourself a path to 270.
Here’s what I’ve got.
Each blue state you see there has been blue in every presidential election since 1992, with the sole exception of New Mexico — which has been blue in every election since 1992 except for 2004. Obama won the state by 10 points three years ago against Romney and by 15 points seven years ago against McCain; if Hillary can’t protect an advantage like that and ends up losing the state next year, it would mean some sort of catastrophic national failure of her campaign that would make NM’s electoral votes irrelevant anyway. So let’s assume that she’s not a total disaster and manages to hold all of the states that Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama have held (plus New Mexico). That’s … 247 EVs versus 206 “safe” EVs for the GOP, meaning that the election will boil down to just the seven gray states above. And if you can add at a second-grade level, you’ll realize that Florida’s 29 electoral votes would, in and of themselves, be enough to push Hillary over the top at 276 EVs. Myra Adams calls this the “1992 + 1988 + Florida” path to 270 for Democrats since it includes all of the states that have been blue in White House races since 1988 and 1992 plus the Sunshine State. (You don’t even need New Mexico’s five EVs to clinch the White House in this scenario.) In theory, Hillary Clinton could campaign exclusively in Florida for the next 18 months and still be the odds-on favorite to win the presidency.
An obvious lesson from that: The GOP’s almost certainly going to need a candidate from Florida on the ticket next year to maximize its chances of winning the state. Nominating Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio would achieve that. If neither one ends up as nominee, it’s almost a cinch given the math that Rubio will be the VP nominee. He and Susana Martinez are the obvious frontrunners since Republicans would love to have a Latino candidate on the ballot to blunt HIllary’s edge with that group, but Martinez comes from small, deep blue, probably unwinnable New Mexico whereas Rubio comes from large, purple, entire-election-hinges-on-this Florida. It’s a no-brainer. The other obvious lesson you draw is that it’d be awfully nice to have a midwestern candidate on the ticket, to give Ohio and Iowa an extra reason to tilt red. That means Scott Walker, a guy who could, in theory, expand the map by putting Wisconsin in play too. Even losing Wisconsin and winning Iowa would be a moral victory of sorts since Iowa, like New Mexico, has been reliably blue in every presidential contest since the late 80s except for 2004. I’m not lumping it in with NM as a safe blue state, though, partly because the Democrats’ margins of victory there have been smaller (Obama won it by just five points in 2012) and partly because the GOP has so many strong midwestern candidates potentially in the mix this year — Walker, of course, but maybe Kasich and Rick Snyder too — that it might be in play. Long story short, a Walker/Rubio or Rubio/Walker ticket would check lots of regional boxes, theoretically delivering Florida, Iowa, and Ohio and pushing the Republican EV totals on the map above to a healthy 259.
But that still leaves us 11 electoral votes short with just four states left on the table. Virginia alone, with 13 EVs, would do it. So would Colorado plus either Nevada or New Hampshire. And if you think having a hometown boy on the ticket would finally tilt Wisconsin back into the GOP’s column, then all bets are off: Adding Walker’s home state would put the GOP at 269, clinching no worse than a presidential tie and forcing Hillary to run the table in the remaining states just to get the election to the House of Representatives, which would of course decide it for the Republicans. There’s reason to think Wisconsin is winnable, too. Obama won it by 14 points in 2008 but Romney cut his margin in half in 2012. Putting Walker on the national ballot might be enough to win a close race there, a devastating blow to Hillary’s chances. Again, though, this assumes that the GOP is also winning Florida, Ohio, and Iowa, something that’s happened exactly once since Reagan stomped Mondale in 1984. (And the one time it happened, in 2004, was defined by the fallout to the biggest terror attack in American history.) You can safely say two things from all this. One: Walker and Rubio are probably your best play, in whatever order. And two: Hillary Clinton is still a strong favorite to win because that’s just the way the map is.
We must win these 7 states.
We does not include jebbush or similar rinos.
Lincoln/Douglas debates is what we need, there are already scheduled debates but when you 10,12 or more candidates in a debate it is all a waste, most debates are 90 minutes to 2 hours, by the time each candidate makes a two or three minute opening remarks, it is nearly half over, then the debate moderators will fix it so the rest of the debate is only between two or three candidates who are the weakest.
We are headed for 2012 again with so many wannabees most who have no business in the competition wasting time, money and resources, and the last man standing is Romney this time Bush and it is all over, Hillary or some other communist takes the prize.
Let's assume I'm Napoleon Bonaparte.
Mr. Cruz is certainly not eligible for the office: he was born in Canada to a Cuban father and a American mother, there is no way therefore that the 14th Amendment could apply to him, and the laws cited justifying his citizenship (which is not in question) must therefore derive from Art 1, Sec 8 — the ability of the Congress to set a uniform rule of naturalization.
Rubio's eligibility claim is tenuous — he was born in FL four years before his parents [both Cuban] naturalized, and thus to confer on him the status of Natural Born Citizen
is to validate and affirm not only the anchor-baby doctrine, but disperse to invaders the same rights that the lawful citizens reserved for their children, which is absurd on its face.
“2016 will be determined by many angry conservatives, regardless of race, gender, or anything else in my opinion.”
I still believe that there are a lot of angry,”hard working” (YES, THEY EXIST) Democrats undercover, ALSO angry about the economy and having their party hijacked.
“Lincoln/Douglas debates is what we need”
This would be rather tricky to do, given that there is exactly one (1) candidate available who would be more than a pimple on either of the above-mentioned candidates #$$es in terms of oratorical skills. Hard to believe that with no microphones, they could hold a debate with a crowd of thousands of people silently listening to every word. Of course, people generally aren’t as well-behaved these days either.
FR isn't a debating society on eligibility. The owner of this site has said Cruz is eligible. Get on board with the owner or start your own site.
/johnny
.
I seriously doubt that Florida will be any factor at all.
Either the country has had enough, or it is too stupid to know.
.
You decided to bail out, huh?
Cruz or Lose!
And since when has FR been about agreeing with everything that anybody, even Jim, thinks?
Isn't that sort of approach exactly the same as Political Correctness? Isn't the conform or be destroyed
methodology the hallmark of collectivist thought?
If FR isn't a place where people can reasonably disagree, then what is it?
.
You must be a democrap!
.
This is a conservative site. Not a republican site.
I am here because I agree with the basic premises of the top page. Not because I want to argue whether conservatism is a good idea.
Cruz is eligible. Get over it. The owner has rightly said Cruz is eligible.
/johnny
Jeb, Rubio, and Paul have all made permanent fools of themselves.
No serious observer could ever pull the lever for them.
What do you mean?
I was convinced that the Birthers
had a good argument about BHO's eligibility*, to refuse to apply that same standard to our guy
is both intellectually and morally dishonest.
That's not the same as saying that Cruz's character makes him unsuitable for office, it's not denying that [eligibility aside] comparatively to all others on he's one of the best character-wise (but given most of the rest of the field that's a backhanded complement) — all it is saying is that I do not believe him to be Constitutionally eligible, no more, no less.
> Jeb, Rubio, and Paul have all made permanent fools of themselves.
> No serious observer could ever pull the lever for them.
I quite agree, and I won’t.
.
>> “Let’s assume I’m Napoleon Bonaparte” <<
.
OK, first stick your right hand in your shirt to hold your Gallbladder...
This is a conservative site. Not a republican site.
And I have said nothing positive about the Republicans in a long time; I believe them to be no different than the Democrats, and the past several years I have been constantly proved right.
I am here because I agree with the basic premises of the top page. Not because I want to argue whether conservatism is a good idea.
You're jumping the gun here: implicitly asserting that I cannot be conservative and question Mr. Cruz's eligibility.
I am a Constitutionalist, I have given a Constitutional reasoning for my stance — where is it wrong?
Cruz is eligible. Get over it. The owner has rightly said Cruz is eligible.
You are asserting facts not in evidence; it has not been proven and it is, in fact, eligible.
Saying he is eligible again and again, appealing to authority w/o any regard for rational discussion — this reminds me of Obama's supporters, and I know you're better than that.
I’d like to see your map. Can’t see it. Maybe it’s because I’m on an iPad. If you could, could you snap a screenshot of it and post it as a photo? There may be others on tablets who’d like to see what you made.
The eligibility game has been blown out of the water.
It is a proven fact that obama was not born a citizen under any form of law, yet no one in congress was willing to go after it.
That is where it is.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.