Posted on 04/29/2015 6:06:57 AM PDT by McGruff
Flight controllers are unable to receive data from unmanned Progress M-27M – and the only way to regain control would be an ultra-risky ‘manual stablilisation’ carried out by the ISS crew.
But a Russian space program analyst said: “Trying to stabilise it manually would be extremely risky. You could destroy the station and kill the crew.”
The spacecraft is carrying more than 6,000lb of food, fuel and supplies for the ISS crew – which is currently home to Russian and American astronauts.
The M-27M was launched via a standard Soyuz rocket at 8.09 a.m. GMT today (1.09 p.m. local time in Baikonur) from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, NASA said.
A Russian space official has said attempts to re-establish control of the craft were “unlikely” to succeed .
It is hoped the craft will burn up on re-entry to the atmosphere – but no-one can predict where that will be.
He added: “If we’re honest, only a miracle can save the craft now.
“The only way to save the craft would be for astronauts on board the International Space Station, to which the unmanned craft is carrying supplies, to attempt to take manual control of the runaway spaceship.
“But trying to stabilise it manually would be extremely risky. You could destroy the station and kill the crew.
“It will probably be allowed to gradually lower its orbit until it burns up in the atmosphere.”
Russia's space agency and NASA both said the six crew members on board the orbiting space station have sufficient supplies and are in no danger.
In Moscow an un-named official added: "It has started descending. It has nowhere else to go.
"It is clear that absolutely uncontrollable reactions have begun."
Another source said: "Specialists have recognized that Progress is hopeless. Controlled deorbiting is impossible."
"There have been no improvements," a mission control spokesman told AFP.
Earlier a Russian mission control source said: "Only a miracle can save the spacecraft."
The Russians were initially unable to say when or where the spacecraft will crash to Earth.
"We have scheduled two more communication sessions to soothe our conscience," said the official, but hopes are virtually zero of salvaging the craft which contained supplied for the ISS.
Meanwhile, the Joint Space Operations Centre at the US Vandenberg Air Force in California detected 44 items of debris of unknown origin in orbit close to the ailing Progress space ship.
Spokesman for the Russian space agency, Mikhail Fadeyev, declined to comment on the latest botched launch .
Deputy premier Dmitry Rogozin admitted: "We're all worrying about our cargo spacecraft."
The controllers yesterday sought but failed to change the flight plan and extend the vessel's journey to two days instead of six hours in a bid to fix the glitch.
"It's the first time that we have such a combination of emergency situations."
The Russian Space Agency's Mission Control today ended attempts to contact the Progress cargo spacecraft, and restart its engines, after three attempts failed.
"Today, during Progress' scheduled pass of the Russian zone of visibility such an attempt was made for the first time, but it did not succeed," a source told RIA Novosti.
The Progress craft was due to dock on 30 April
NASA said none of the equipment on board was critical for the US section of the ISS, and that the astronauts have plenty of provisions, enough to last for months.
The Progress was carrying "1,940 pounds (880 kilos) of propellant, 110 pounds of oxygen, 926 pounds of water, and 3,128 pounds of spare parts, supplies and scientific experiment hardware," NASA said.
Other reports suggested the launch of the Soyuz TMA-17M manned spacecraft scheduled for May 26 may be delayed because of the emergency with the Progress M-27M.
"Several elements of the Progress are similar to those of the manned Soyuz. In particular, the Kurs rendezvous and docking system is the same at both spacecraft. It is not ruled out that the launch of Soyuz with new ISS crew may be postponed," said a source.
However, a new cargo launch could be brought forward.
"The next Progress may be dispatched to the ISS earlier, because the cargo the Progress M-27M was carrying apparently has been lost. The crew has enough food and water, but in any case the reserves must be replenished," said the Baikonur source.
Russian experts blamed depressurisation as one of the likely causes of problems with the Progress M-27M cargo spacecraft, which might have followed malfunctioning of the delivery vehicle's engines.
Truly “free range” now.
I hope you will keep us informed.
Off topic, by my own experiences, JimmyJohns (Florida) is “scary fast” on delivery service.I've got a Subway and a McDonalds within three blocks, and there is no way I could procure any “fast food”, faster than ordering delivery of JimmyJohns!
Crappy Chinese parts is once again to blame. Roscosmos demands contractors to buy from the lowest bidder to pose as a ‘responsible budget user’ and then blames them for poor quality control. I have seen Chinese so-called ‘hardened’ electronic components, allegedly for use in airspace and military applications. They all have the right marking but I wouldn’t trust most of it to fix motherboard in my home PC.
No quality control would ever fix it with lowest bidding policy, the only solution is to buy from domestic, European, American or Japanese companies, but these are nearly outprice and out of business.
Here’s what else we learned throughout the day:
Progress 59 launched from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on Tuesday without issue
The spacecraft is 7m long and holds 2.5 tonnes of food, water, fuel and other supplies
The vessel malfunctioned soon after it reached orbit on Tuesday and went into an uncontrolled spin.
It is rotating at a rate of 360 degrees every five seconds
The spacecraft is travelling at more than 16,000 miles per hour.
The vessel is 160 miles above the Earth.
It could take up to two weeks for Progress 59 to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere, at which point it is expected to break up.
You can follow Progress 59 using satellite tracking websites Satflare and N2YO.
Igor Komarov, head of Roskosmos, the Russian space agency, says they are now considering different options for a “water landing”.
In light of information that Progress 59 could be orbiting the Earth for up to two weeks, they have decided to close the live blog.
I went to N2YO, and tracked it today. I also looked at 10 days out.
Please bear with my ignorance/incomprehension of the data displayed.
I didn’t understand how high up it would be on May 14.
Sorry to bother you, but I honestly couldn’t understand the track data.
Would you mind updating the progress in simple laymen terms?
I’m not much more informed than you but here are some links if you are interested.
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