'In primaries, the favored candidate appears to always be the Republican establishment candidate, above a tea party challenger.'
Some time ago, I posted a graphic that depicted the counties in the US that were Republican-controlled. The map, which unfortunately was coded with red color, was overwhelmingly red.
So it is not surprising to me that in serious elections Republicans seem to appear in numbers far beyond what the polls and talking heads predict or can even imagine. There just isn't that percentage of Republicans in their universe.
P.S. Kris Kobach is a straight-shooter and very capable litigator. His response will be interesting.