Posted on 04/02/2015 3:52:53 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
While the world focuses on the dangers that a nuclear-armed Iran could present in the Middle East, a potentially more dangerous and unstable nuclear proliferation is occurring in the Indian Ocean.
In the coming years India, Pakistan, and perhaps China will likely deploy a significant number of nuclear weapons at sea in the Indian Ocean. This could further destabilise already unstable nuclear relationships, creating a real risk of a sea-based exchange of nuclear weapons.
Observers have long seen India-Pakistan nuclear rivalry as the most unstable in the world, and South Asia as the most likely location of nuclear conflict. This is not just academic speculation. Foreign diplomats have been evacuated from Islamabad on several occasions from fears of an impending nuclear exchange with India.
India has a 'no first use' (NFU) nuclear-weapons policy of sorts, although it is increasingly subject to caveats and exceptions. But Islamabad refuses to adopt an NFU policy and indeed has announced a long list of actions that it claims would justify a nuclear response against India. Pakistan is also busy miniaturising its nuclear weapons for tactical use, thus reducing the threshold for Pakistani nuclear action.
Importantly, Pakistan sees its nuclear arsenal not only as a deterrent but also as an enabler, providing an umbrella under which it can sponsor sub-conventional attacks against India. In the face of terrorist attacks such as those in Mumbai in 2008, Delhi has found its options constrained by concerns about a possible Pakistani nuclear response. But few are confident that India's restraint can be maintained in the face of another serious cross-border attack that is proved to have been sponsored by Pakistan.
Both India and Pakistan are now in the process of moving their nuclear weapons capabilities into the maritime realm.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearworld.com ...
Whether they threaten with nukes — well, they don’t need to do that with Afghanistan, they use the Taliban for that. And, as for Iran, they worry about Irani support for the Baluchis. Also, their nukes are at the disposal of Saudia and Iran knows that, so they do subtly threaten Iran with nukes
Pakistan has, since the 80s made it's insane mind up that there are two types of terrorists -- the "good" ones they use to cause mayhem in India and Afghanistan and the "bad" ones that attack within Pakistan.
Those "good ones" always had the Pakistani government (well, the army and the army is much more powerful than Nawaz Sharif) ear and in particular the ISI, the Pakistani "CIA" which is a state within a state within a state and independently powerful -- the ISI supported, created and supports the terrorists even now, believing them as the best for "unequal war" against India.
Then in 1970 the western Pakistanis (which is dominated by Punjabis) ended their 20 year discrimination of Bengali Moslems by committing genocide in East Pakistan which got independence and became Bangladesh (the "desh"/country of the Banglas/Bengalis)
With this, the entire raison d'etre of Pakistan collapsed -- what is it? it's only unifying factor was islam and yet it had sunnis (a large bunch of whom were Sufis), shias, Ahmaddiyas, Bohris etc. along with non-Moslems.
so, under the dictator Zia-ul-huq in the 70s and 80s it became more and more radicalised under Saudi Wahabbi tutelage.
Right now the military takes up a large % of the government budget (supposedly 50%) while the country languishes.
After being defeated by India in 4 wars (1947, 1965, 1971, 1999) the Pakis decided they couldn't defeat India in conventional methods so used terrorists
They are also the ONLY nuclear power that holds to the "first use theory" -- they will use nukes as an offensive option in a war, not a defensive.
Pakistan is obsessed with India and would only bluster against India, no one else. It's a mono-maniac
Not really. It would bluster with Israel, but that was more Ahmadinejad, the rest of Iran don't care about what happens in Palestine -- they thought it would get them beanie points in the Sunni world, but they've given up that idea
Who else would they threaten?
so, the nukes are no more than "show" -- and that's what they are using to get all sanctions lifted against them
As I said above, the Iranis would not threaten dropping nuclear bombs on the "holy land" of Saudi Arabia. Also, they would be bombarded by Pakistani "Islamic nuclear bombs" a few seconds later
They may use the cover to invade the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, but I would love to see the Sunni-Shia war get hotter -- let them kill each other rather than us.
India hasn't used its nukes for bluster. It doesn't need to.
That cover was used by the Pakistanis when they initiated the Kargil war in 1999. But India called the bluff.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.