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Obamacare’s Chances Of Survival Are Looking Better And Better
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT ^
| 03/06/2015
| Oliver Roeder
Posted on 03/06/2015 9:00:03 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Solicitor General Donald Verrilli won Wednesday’s oral arguments in King v. Burwell, the latest challenge to the Affordable Care Act. Or at least thats what the wisdom of the crowd is telling us.
When we previewed the case, the predictors at FantasySCOTUS saw it as a 5-4 reversal, with Chief Justice John Roberts essentially sitting on the fence. (A reversal could result in the loss of billions of dollars in federal subsidies that are helping millions of Americans in more than 30 states purchase health insurance.) Now, they see it as a 6-3 affirm — in support of the government. (Note, though, that Roberts and Justice Anthony Kennedy are still seen as on or near the fence.)
Here are the shifts in the predictions over the course of the past few days. The plot represents a rolling average of the last 200 predictions entered by FantasySCOTUS players. The proportion of predicted votes to strike a blow to the ACA fell sharply Wednesday.
Jeffrey Toobin gives an overview of the oral argument — and his reading of the tea leaves — in The New Yorker. He suggests that Robertss relative silence may have been the most telling of all. The crowd agrees.
Roberts was seen as significantly less likely to vote against maintaining the ACA than he was before oral argument. Kennedy, another swing vote, also came away seeming less likely to vote against the ACA.
JUSTICE |
REVERSAL CHANCE BEFORE |
AFTER |
Scalia |
91% |
93% |
Thomas |
90 |
92 |
Alito |
88 |
91 |
Kennedy |
66 |
50 |
Roberts |
53 |
43 |
Ginsburg |
17 |
12 |
Sotomayor |
17 |
12 |
Breyer |
17 |
11 |
Kagan |
16 |
10 |
Oral arguments have thrown us off the scent before, however. In the previous major ACA challenge, Verrilli’s performance before the court was panned. He was passive,” Toobin told Politico in 2012. “He was stumbling. He was nervous. I was just shocked. But Verrilli emerged victorious then.
Despite the shifts on King v. Burwell, the outcome is still up in the air. Josh Blackman, FantasySCOTUSs creator, told me: Going into arguments, I thought the case was a tossup. Leaving arguments, I still think the case is a tossup. And it looks like the players of FantasySCOTUS agree: It is a tossup.
TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: obamacare
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To: Bob434
... If this is true, then why arent the republican SC justices demanding she do so? I think youre right, but Im puzzled why they are allowing her to be seated in this atgument
********************
I believe the issue regarding Kegan arose the first time SCOTUS ruled on Obamacare. I recall that only the individual Justice can recuse themself from a case... no one else can force the recusal. ....Kegan has no morals.
61
posted on
03/06/2015 7:49:21 PM PST
by
octex
To: Fightin Whitey
No one would know filth better than a nasty old pile of it. Idiots often reveal themselves by raging fulsomely to themselves, to the tv set, to their poor abused families, even to the walls.
Theyll fume and spit most anywhere they feel safe from actual consequence, behind a keyboard, for instance.
That is because they are gutless, as well as witless and pointless.
Ultimately they are to be pitied: condemned to life with a cowards mouth and a dead rotten heart.
I'm responding to specific insults made maliciously against me over a legal analysis.
What, exactly, are you talking about? And you realize you sound like a maniac, right? Re-read what you wrote, and see if you can explain yourself without levitating into the Twilight Zone.
62
posted on
03/06/2015 7:53:20 PM PST
by
Talisker
(One who commands, must obey.)
To: Talisker
So, in such an environment, the Court literally would be ruling that it would cease to exist as the interpreter of the law. And thats what Roberts was pointing out with his question.
*****************************
Very good explanation! ...The candy bar analogy was good, too.
63
posted on
03/06/2015 8:05:46 PM PST
by
octex
To: octex
thanks I wasn’t aware of that- Seems like though that if a justice repeatedly shows no morals there aught to be something that can be done to remove them from their position, no? Otherwise we’d have corrupt judges deciding law for us?
64
posted on
03/07/2015 12:01:53 AM PST
by
Bob434
To: Talisker
Yes, and you are the voice of reason.
I didn’t even post to you in the first place. I used a few of your words to tease another poster.
Yet off you go, raging and calumniating.
Froth away, Talisker. You won’t bother anyone here.
To: Fightin Whitey; sickoflibs; NFHale
Oh, I dunno....post #57 is an absolute FR classic. I not only read it twice, but I printed it out. sol, hale, I doubt if you can top this thread. If you can, enlighten me. LOL!!!!
signed,
Collectivist, left wing freakazoid
66
posted on
03/07/2015 8:33:33 AM PST
by
stephenjohnbanker
(My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
To: Fightin Whitey
I didnt even post to you in the first place. I used a few of your words to tease another poster. Yet off you go, raging and calumniating. Oh is that what you did? I must have missed it between your laughing support of someone foully swearing at me without proffering a shred of integrity or discernable argument, and your free-floating poetry about "dead rotten hearts." My mistake.
Froth away, Talisker. You wont bother anyone here.
"Here" is relative. I assure you, I bother a lot of people, and they've made it known to me in every way they can.
Yes, and you are the voice of reason.
"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act."
- George Orwell
67
posted on
03/07/2015 11:12:32 AM PST
by
Talisker
(One who commands, must obey.)
To: stephenjohnbanker
post #57 is an absolute FR classic. I not only read it twice, but I printed it out. Don't forget to include full attribution for any reprints. Copyright laws are in effect and all rights are reserved.
68
posted on
03/07/2015 11:14:40 AM PST
by
Talisker
(One who commands, must obey.)
To: Talisker; Fightin Whitey
” it between your laughing support of someone foully swearing at me “
I never swore at you, all I did was forget to turn the letter s into a dollar sign. Check my last 2,000 posts, and you will see I never did that before. Secondly, the word was used regarding what you wrote, NOT YOU, so yes, you lie. What amazes me is the drooling, slobbering way you handle trivial things. Are you on medication?
69
posted on
03/07/2015 11:34:39 AM PST
by
stephenjohnbanker
(My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
To: stephenjohnbanker
I never swore at you, all I did was forget to turn the letter s into a dollar sign. Check my last 2,000 posts, and you will see I never did that before. Secondly, the word was used regarding what you wrote, NOT YOU, so yes, you lie. What amazes me is the drooling, slobbering way you handle trivial things. Are you on medication? Thanks for proving my points - all of them - once again. You're efficient, I'll give you that.
70
posted on
03/07/2015 11:47:53 AM PST
by
Talisker
(One who commands, must obey.)
To: stephenjohnbanker; Fightin Whitey; sickoflibs
Fightin Whitey: Brother POUND DAWG!!! You raisin’ Hell again, brother??? How are ya! Coming to the aid of some of my other brothers!!! Outstanding!
SJB: Play nice, now... :^) You little “collectivist”, you!
SOL: Turn it on, brother!!!
71
posted on
03/07/2015 4:45:25 PM PST
by
NFHale
(The Second Amendment - By Any Means Necessary.)
To: Old Yeller
And the countrys chances of survival, dont look so good. Not in our lifetime, I am certain, but hopefully after the end of CW II, the country will be able to be put back together. Who knows, in 100 years we may once again be a shining city on a hill.
72
posted on
03/07/2015 5:12:22 PM PST
by
COBOL2Java
("God save America" - we are at the dawn of a new dark age)
To: stephenjohnbanker; NFHale
I rarely get on in the day on weekends and I checked this one a few hours ago and its hard to follow.
You don't want me to jump into this one anyway.
You will like this one : #65
73
posted on
03/07/2015 7:51:28 PM PST
by
sickoflibs
(King Obama : 'The debate is over. The time for talk is over. Just follow my commands you serfs""')
To: NFHale; stephenjohnbanker
74
posted on
03/07/2015 8:02:45 PM PST
by
sickoflibs
(King Obama : 'The debate is over. The time for talk is over. Just follow my commands you serfs""')
To: sickoflibs
“Is OWF still at it ? :)”
Yep...... “Howlin” at the moon..
75
posted on
03/09/2015 10:30:34 AM PDT
by
stephenjohnbanker
(My Batting Average( 1,000) (GOPe is that easy to read))
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