2007 for the pats was an anomaly - wasn’t that the year that they passed a ton, completed a ton, and an old randy moss had a career year? They lost 1 game at the end of the year, no NFL team has ever won more games in a year than those pats. Statistically, I think you will have a hard time using that year to prove anything.
Do fumbles occur more often late in games than early? If the pats ran less, then their backs were never as tired as backs on teams that ran a lot (and fumbled more often).
That's my point. Anomalies don't just usually "anomalize" out of thin air.
Do fumbles occur more often late in games than early? If the pats ran less, then their backs were never as tired as backs on teams that ran a lot (and fumbled more often).
No, actually winning teams tend to run the ball a whole lot more, adding to the risk of fumbles and significantly lowering interceptions. Losing teams are also more desperate to strip the ball.
Even if you can find slight % distinctives thru some variable...we're not talking about sudden slight % changes:
"As is apparent, the Patriots are the only outdoor NFL team in the last 25 years to average 70 plays per fumble or better. It’s simply uncanny, as the statistics above similarly showed."
"The league average from 2010 to 2014 was 50 plays per fumble. For indoor teams, the average was 55 plays per fumble. For outdoor teams, excluding the Patriots, the average was 46 plays per fumble. The Patriots averaged 73 plays per fumble, almost 60 percent more than outdoor teams and almost 50 percent more than the league average the past five years."
Source: Dumb Luck: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible.