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To: LearnsFromMistakes; All
2007 for the pats was an anomaly - wasn’t that the year that they passed a ton, completed a ton, and an old randy moss had a career year? ... no NFL team has ever won more games in a year than those pats.

That's my point. Anomalies don't just usually "anomalize" out of thin air.

Do fumbles occur more often late in games than early? If the pats ran less, then their backs were never as tired as backs on teams that ran a lot (and fumbled more often).

No, actually winning teams tend to run the ball a whole lot more, adding to the risk of fumbles and significantly lowering interceptions. Losing teams are also more desperate to strip the ball.

Even if you can find slight % distinctives thru some variable...we're not talking about sudden slight % changes:

"As is apparent, the Patriots are the only outdoor NFL team in the last 25 years to average 70 plays per fumble or better. It’s simply uncanny, as the statistics above similarly showed."
"The league average from 2010 to 2014 was 50 plays per fumble. For indoor teams, the average was 55 plays per fumble. For outdoor teams, excluding the Patriots, the average was 46 plays per fumble. The Patriots averaged 73 plays per fumble, almost 60 percent more than outdoor teams and almost 50 percent more than the league average the past five years."
Source: Dumb Luck: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible.

46 posted on 02/18/2015 1:56:29 PM PST by Colofornian (When the Truth can hurt you, you do everything you can to keep the Truth from light of day...)
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To: Colofornian

‘Anomalies don’t just usually ‘anomalize’ out of thin air’

That is why they are called anomalies, and that is why this 1 year is bad. If the pats provided balls for the 8 years since, how come they haven’t had any more ‘and 1’ seasons? Why dont they continue to break records? It was an anomaly.

‘winning teams tend to run the ball a whole lot more’

Yet the winningest team ever threw the ball a lot, in fact set several records that year (that have probably since been broken since the NFL keeps changing the rules to make pass defense almost impossible).

‘only outdoor NFL team in the last 25 years to average 70 plays per fumble’

So as a team it has been like this...not for just the last 8 years since the ball/rule change, but for 2x that long before. Ok, so now low fumbles are not an anomaly of the ball/rule change, but the way the pats have been doing business for 25 years, thru winning and losing seasons, superbowl champs and at least 1-15 season (those are the pats I know and love!!!).


54 posted on 02/18/2015 2:58:30 PM PST by LearnsFromMistakes (Yes, I am happy to see you. But that IS a gun in my pocket.)
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