Posted on 01/15/2015 6:38:42 PM PST by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Investors are so nervous that they are basically willing to lose money when they buy some government bonds. It's part of the latest fad in finance that's all the rage: "going negative." The yields on government bonds in Europe and Japan have dipped into the uncharted waters of negative territory. That means buyers of those bonds are essentially taking a loss just to hold onto those assets. They think their money is better off losing a few cents than putting it elsewhere. "It's basically a fee for fear," said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx. "Fear of deflation, fear of volatility in other capital markets and general fear of the known."
Below zero: Just look at Switzerland, where the yield on bonds fell further into negative territory this week after the country's central bank dropped a bombshell on investors by scrapping a currency cap. In addition to allowing the Swiss franc to trade freely against the euro, the Swiss National Bank lowered a key interest rate further into negative territory, from -0.25% to -0.75%. That's like a bank charging customers to park their money there instead of paying them interest. Switzerland isn't alone in going negative. The yield on short-term government bonds of Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, and the Netherlands are all sub-zero. Even short duration U.S. bond rates are barely above zero.
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Bingo
I 100% agree. These satanic reptilians will go to the last drop. They have no scruples. They are emboldened with destruction & decadence. Nothing will stop them but the universe - gravity.
That's a tough call. I certainly agree in the short term. However, IMO, if you can lock down a $200,000 loan for 30 years at < 4%, that's (historically) really hard to pass up even if you're losing money for a few years.
It wasn’t too insensitive. It just came across as really ignorant. LOL.
Most likely, the 10 employees @ $20 an hour will be replaced with 20-30 employees @ $5 an hour, not 50 employees @ $5 an hour. And, those $5 an hour employees are likely sending some of their wages back home, too.
(The whole example needs a "x2" on the wages, for 2015, but that doesn't change the argument.)
People living below the poverty line in the U.S. today have a better standard of living than someone in the middle class did even as recently as 25-30 years ago.
No way. "Standard of Living" as presently figured has almost no relation to reality.
Case 1: Sure, a thingamajig I purchase today may cost half as much in 1985 dollars as it did in 1985. But it likely lasts a 3rd as long.
Oh sure, there are great gains in tech, in particular. But, even so, do they really make for a better life? I'll take a good rod and reel or a decent rifle (at 1985 equivalent price) and the activities that go with either, over an Ipad, any day. I'll be healthier, and the former will serve me or my children a lot better if things go splat, too.
Case 2: In 1985, the average middle class family could afford college for a couple kids (at least at a 2nd tier in state 4-year school, with the kids working summers). In 2015: Impossible without major gov't help. In 1985, the average family could readily afford their own health care / insurance without gov't aid. In 2015: Very difficult if not impossible.
Also, WHY would I as an employer increase my labor costs, paint a bigger target on my back for the Gov't, and most likely have a more difficult to work with and much less stable work force to boot? (This assumes my business' productivity is held at a constant; if it is not, the entire argument is skewed.)
Now, that I agree with.
Maybe so in the first case, but I'm not sure about that. Another important question is: What's the value of what is being produced? And in the case of remittances to Mexico, that kind of ties into what I described as the underlying push for "free trade" ... the U.S. has effectively staved off deflationary trends here at home by making Mexico part of our economy.
Your comments about how our standard of living have some merit, but keep in mind that the durability of many products is less important today than it was 30 years ago. The reason for this is that many of these things become functionally obsolete before they physically break down. Some of the most expensive things a typical American owns today (cars, home electronics, etc.) are replaced while they are still in perfectly good working order. It's hard to capture the value of durability in a "standard of living" measurement under these circumstances.
The comparisons between 2015 and 1985 in things like health care and education have no meaning whatsoever. For one thing, these are two areas where the cost to the buyer is so heavily distorted by government subsidization that it's impossible to accurately compare 1985 costs to 2015 costs.
In the case of health care, you have the added complication of comparing costs over a thirty-year time period in an area that is dominated by many procedures, technologies and treatments that didn't even exist thirty years ago. I would make the case that a medical insurance plan today might be more affordable than it was in 1985 if it only covered medical procedures and treatments that existed in 1985.
And I say "might" because medical insurance doesn't lend well to comparisons for inflationary purposes. This is because it's not a product or service itself, but a financial mechanism to pay for a product or service. And a huge part of the cost of medical insurance today is paying for someone else's medical care.
Good post.
The productivity point is absolutely relevant, though -- and I'm envisioning a scenario where the 50 employees are more productive than the 10 employees. If this sounds outlandish, understand that this is basically what has happened in the U.S. auto industry over the last 30+ years. The Big Three pay their workers a lot more under their UAW contracts, so they keep fewer of them on the payroll. Foreign competitors that have opened plants all over the South, on the other hand, pay their workers less but hire a lot more of them. For the most part, they've made better cars over the yeas, too.
It appears to me that the purpose of open borders is to bring about the death and destruction to this nation so the little godheads can bring “chaos out of order” which seems to be their global motto.
Pay off debt.
In cash long enough to pick up reduced price real estate you can rent out.
The scary part is the various international and (perhaps) national regulations now permitting a “bail-in”.
IE, you get bailed out, we take a part of everyone’s bank accounts.
Right now millions of illegals buy beer, cheap trinkets at WalMart and have lots of babies at the expense of others and corrupt gov benefit by all this in the form of more tax revenue. A bandaid.
This is an attempt to keep the korrupt kingdom in cash, more tax revenue. $
They need to do this because half those in white working class America saw their wages going stagnant or belly up for nearly 20 years now...They've had their hours slashed or job eliminated all together....Working part time with zip benefits is now the American norm....On and on.
Corrupt gov attempts to make up for this by bringing in endless millions of Mexicans as a temporary tourniquet for their tax revenues. It's all very temporary of course since even millions of Mexicans buying freight trains full of pampers and Budweiser won't be able to prop up the corrupt big top.
Some people attempt to explain all this away with disjointed wordy comments, struggling to rationalize it That don't worky no more...None of this is complex.
Some like the Child here can't figure out an American middle class is no longer needed by corrupt gov...They expected too much and became heavy luggage. Americans are being incrementally replaced by a low wage, low information population on a daily basis. It's so much easier to control.
Boy, that worked out fantastic didn't it Child?
It's been working so well for decades now, your dollar has been made nearly worthless, while debt has reached the lunar surface.
Were you behind these free trade plans?
America is now nearly dead on the floor in every respect..Brilliant plan child.
Ah, but are the 50 employees more productive than if the 10 employee employer adds 2 or 3 more $20/hr. employees running highly automated equipment that requires skilled operators? To make the comparison one must set equal either the output of the labor, or the cost of the labor.
As for the car manufacturers, that is a MUCH more complex situation. For one thing, the management / worker relationship is typically much different in those foreign competitors’ plants. But I agree about the better cars!
I am not such a damn fool as to believe that the cost of subsidies of health insurance does not come back to the average, middle class person, in the end. Ditto for the cost of financial aid for college.
I’d also suggest you take a look at the costs of ordinary medical care that has NOT changed much in 30 years. Forget “insurance”, just look at the cost of simple care. It is through the roof. That subsidized insurance you speak of is not relevant because any plan I can afford does not cover my family if I get the Flu or my daughter catches her big toe in a door. If anything, my family gets killed first by premiums I am now forced to buy, then by the (indirect) cost of subsidies (some of which I can recover if I get a subsidy, but it’s still a losing proposition in the long run), and then by the cost of seeing a doctor, which is very high and not covered by the freaking insurance. (I’m sorry, I do not mean to sound “angry” at you, but median income persons like myself are just getting killed, financially, even if our rate of pay on the surface seems to be keeping pace with inflation.)
Also, in any sane world, technology should bring DOWN many medical costs, but it has not, anywhere I look.
The bottom line is, in 1985 I could afford health care. In 2015, with stronger income, I can’t. Likely, some of this IS due to me paying for other people’s care. And, maybe it agrees with your overall argument — certainly neither health care costs to me or it’s % of GDP has deflated!
I’d also contest your premise that durability is less important than it once was. In some areas, like computers & phones, this is true, tho’ to be honest, the popularity of simple cell phones and plans belies the idea that everyone wants (or can afford) the latest gadgetry. However, taking cars as an example, any car that is in perfectly good working order is most likely being driven by someone, or, at least, could command a handsome price on the used market. Such a product is NOT “functionally obsolete”, unless the Gov’t gets it into their heads to outlaw older cars without tire pressure monitoring, or some such nonsense... (Oddly enough, many car & car audio enthusiasts prefer older cars, because they can still install superior aftermarket equipment into them.)
Moreover, sometimes new cars are functionally more problematic for a user than an old car: Try for example, putting good snow tires on your 2013 AWD sedan that came stock with, oh, say, all season or touring tires. If you inflate the tires to satisfy the tire pressure monitor, they will most likely NOT be inflated properly for best wear, traction, or mileage.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I’ll bet new car sales to families making $40k to $60k per year are pretty pathetic. And... Why don’t people buy cars from the “Big 3”? Because they don’t hold up as well.
Here's a link to an interesting article posted today on FR, describing how Michigan seems to be getting around Obamacare mandates by allowing retainer agreements between patients and doctors:
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