Posted on 01/13/2015 10:39:27 AM PST by thackney
I've been in the oil patch for close to 30 years. During that time, I have seen oil price go down to about $10 per barrel, and I have seen the price rise to over $100 per barrel. I have seen the price swing for no reason at all. I have heard different bogeymen being blamed for changes in the oil price. Supply and demand are certainly part of the oil price equation, but speculation has been a major price driver for at least the last couple of years, beyond the S&D factors.
Right now, the Saudis are being blamed for, or accused of, intentionally dropping the price of oil to its present position.
Did no one listen to what the Saudi spokesman said? He said that Saudi Arabia is going to let the market set the price, and they will not unilaterally lower their production to stop the apparent free-fall of oil prices. In fact, he went further to say that Saudi Arabia won't cut production as part of a multilateral effort to stabilize oil prices.
I believe they are merely facing a grim reality. In the past, in order to moderate oil price swings, Saudi Arabia - as the world's largest producer - would drop oil production with promises from their OPEC partners to do likewise. The partners, time and again, were caught selling their product through clandestine channels, or even blatantly raising production publicly to increase their income before prices dropped further. The phrase "get while the gettin's good" comes to mind.
I believe that Saudi Arabia is just weary of being the only country/producer to attempt to moderate the swings, and that they are doing exactly what they said: They are letting the market set the price. After all, the Saudi Arabian oil production infrastructure is in place, and they can still make a profit even at half the price that oil is trading for today. The Saudi Arabian national economy may need higher prices, but the oil patch is still in the black, while other producers with higher production costs are going to feel the pinch long before the Saudis do.
One other item of note: US oil production is up about 1 million barrels per day, and the apparent world wide surplus is reported to be 2 million barrels per day. Why is no one suggesting that the US cut production to 2010 levels? Because the US is still a net oil importer is certainly one of the factors; however, if there is a world-wide oil glut, the increased US production must certainly take part of the blame for it.
They have some production that cheap, but they didn’t spend $17 billion on Manifa for a whim. That is what new production is costing them.
“I think the Saudi’s are doing exactly what they said they are doing.”
I agree with that - and I also think they are doing more than what they said they are doing. For instance, keep pumping like they are doing also will lower the cost of acquiring oil producing assets around the world, which I think they will do.
Distressed fracking assets will be on sale cheap before too long, for example.
Manifa is 1/10 Saudi Arabia's daily production. It's a shallow water well, so cash costs should be low. Freeport McMoran's deep water GOM cash cost was $12.
It's pointless outside of North America, because governments can and will change the terms at whim. For instance, Saudi Arabia forced Aramco (Arabian American Oil Company, then owned by Socal and Texaco) to hand over 50% of its profits, then gradually nationalized it. For antitrust reasons, I expect the US to block acquisitions of US oil assets by OPEC members.
They are whipping a man 1,000 times, which will kill him, for making fun of Mad Mo. Can’t trust savages.
The CGES revealed that estimates of investment intensity per peak daily barrel range from the ultra-cheap $2,500 (per peak daily barrel) for development of the Haradh III zone of the supergiant Ghawar oilfield to $10,000 for the massive Khurais et al development and finally $17,500 for the Manifa field, the most expensive development in Saudi Arabia.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/127903/CGES_Manifa_Is_an_Expensive_Development/?all=HG2
Manifa produces a sour crude, so called because it contains hydrogen sulfide, a poisonous, highly corrosive gas which must be removed in a stabilizer before the oil can be pumped into the hold of a tanker.
http://www.aramcoworld.com/issue/196306/manifa-profile.of.a.decision.htm
We’re about to see it from KSA’s Vanadium laced Manifa oil field. It is heavy sour with a lot of vanadium in it (which corrodes the tanks and pipes of a refinery). It is so bad that KSA is building their own refineries for that oil and will sell the output, funding the cost of corrosion of tanks and pipes themselves.
The SPR is nearly full.Seems like the US Govt should be adding to the strategic reserve at this time. Don’t know if they are or not, haven’t heard.40 posted on January 13, 2015 at 2:42:05 PM EST by matthew fuller
How many days of OPEC imports do we need before it is enough?
. . . besides, we are that close to energy independence - or were, until the price drop cut into our production.Sean Hannity had a guest on today who promoted the idea of going all out to use natural gas for as much of our fuel needs as we can. He emphasized that the cost of converting a car to CNG should only be $300 (and said that the EPA regs against modifying engines were obsolete). But the point obviously is that there are ways the government could put a thumb on the scale in favor of domestic/Canadian energy production. And, IMHO, we should do it.
Imported oil isn’t as cheap as face value indicates. Our independence matters. Given that, we don't need no stinkin’ SPR.
Is there a remote possibility that nations stockpiling oil for economic reasons, but could be preparing for war ?
If wishes were fishes...
Reality is 10~20 times that. $8~10,000 for a pickup.
Was the guest T.Boone Pickens?
Not my area of knowledge. But if your enemy stores their fuel in big offshore tankers, those are easily identifiable targets for battle.
No, I’d have remembered that name since I know it.But seriously, $8,000 for a carburetor and a tank????
The guy’s point was, partially, that the government was making it unnecessarily expensive to convert. I know that CNG has a major downside if you want to take a trip or a long commute. But since NG is plentiful and cheap, you do want to see CNG used by city busses (which is true where I am) and you want LNG used for long-haul freight - by ships, railroads, and even trucks.
I still say that we are now perfectly situated to put a tariff on OPEC oil, and that we ought to bite the bullet right now, when it would be least painful to us to do it.
People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices. It is impossible indeed to prevent such meetings, by any law which either could be executed, or would be consistent with liberty and justice. But though the law cannot hinder people of the same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to facilitate such assemblies; much less to render them necessary. - Adam Smith, Wealth of NationsOPEC is a conspiracy against the American public, and we should seriously consider going out of our way to avoid depending on its members. We have the capability, no thanks to Obama, to stop importing fuel from people who are hostile to us.
It is not a carburetor any more...
NO! No government selection of winners and losers.
Our US jobs in refineries and petrochemical plants are not less important that oil production. Don't make us less competitive with the rest of the world, or distort the market such that it is cheaper for Mexico to import from OPEC while selling us all their oil.
Don't look to the federal government to "help" private industry. Every attempt to do so should cause push back by conservatives.
Dear sir,
Did you ever read the story about the boy who cried "wolf!"?
HTB
Because they’re enemy islamists, like our punk president.
Soddies.
What is it...natural gas direct-injection?
Fuel Injection, change of valve seats, etc
http://autoweek.com/article/car-news/2014-ford-f-150-receives-cnglpg-fuel-option
http://www.edmunds.com/car-news/2014-ford-f-150-cng-option-to-debut-this-fall.html
The Saudi king is more or less history, and there is a power struggle among the clans. As long as the power struggle is going on no one will change the Saudi policy.
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