I think Americans, who are mostly apolitical, are clamoring and ripe for a charismatic third-party limited government candidate. I pray for such a figure to rise, and I hope it's Cruz or Palin. I distinguish the difference between what the MSM thinks of politicians, and what Americans on the ground think of politicians.
I think the Republican party brand is so trashed and tattered and such a joke that avoiding it via an "independent" moniker is probably a good opportunity, a blessing. People who would never vote for a Republican any more than I would ever vote for a Democrat, would be willing to vote for a limited government (that is, a conservative) trailblazer of another name. In the Republican party in Congress, left-leaning Republicans would be DENIED the powerful ally of left-leaning Republican White House administration. Everybody wins when left-leaning politicians are starved of votes.
I don't know whether it will be Jeb, Romney, Christie, or someone else not yet on the radar. I DO expect that protocol will nominate a functional-Democrat Republican. And my vote will go third party if that happens. If Republicans miraculously nominate Cruz or other limited government Christian conservative, I will happily vote Republican.
I will lay odds, that GOPe will support only ONE of Jeb, Christy or Mitt. They do not split their resources.
On the other hand conservatives have too much ego to drop out and unite behind just ONE candidate.
If it is Cruz versus Jeb only after SC primary, my money is on Cruz winning.
If it is Jeb, Cruz, Perry, Pence, Rand, Jindal in the race, Jeb will win by dividing conservative votes.