What do you think?
I think speculation can drive prices up/down on the short term, but that is the definition of a futures market, speculating what the future supply and demand will be.
If it is the Saudis fighting Iran, Russia and U.S. shale producers and punishing OPEC members who exceed production quotas, then it will be six months.
If I could predict the price of oil and the durations of the peaks and valleys, I wouldn't have to work for a living. Predicting political fallout is well beyond my ability. I do believe Saudi Arabia is well prepared with their cash reserves to hold out far longer than Iran, Venezuela and probably Russia.