I think speculation can drive prices up/down on the short term, but that is the definition of a futures market, speculating what the future supply and demand will be.
If it is the Saudis fighting Iran, Russia and U.S. shale producers and punishing OPEC members who exceed production quotas, then it will be six months.
If I could predict the price of oil and the durations of the peaks and valleys, I wouldn't have to work for a living. Predicting political fallout is well beyond my ability. I do believe Saudi Arabia is well prepared with their cash reserves to hold out far longer than Iran, Venezuela and probably Russia.
The futures market 'predicts' annual price increases from today's front month, January, at $57.49, of 7%, 6%, 3%, 2% and 1%. In other words, it is in slight contango, but not appreciably more than carrying cost. Two years from now, it is at $65 and 10,800 full-size contracts are being bet on that. For perspective, one of those contracts represents more risk than most of us would be able to assume.
So the market is telling the industry that we're in this for the long haul.