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I have no idea whether we’re looking at a Vitter-Dardenne run-off. The jungle primary is in October 2015, and there’s plenty of time for a prominent Democrat to jump in.

“And then there is the issue of who Vitter, as governor, would appoint to fill his Senate seat should he win.”

That begs the question: Would Vitter get to select his replacement? If he resigns from tbe Senate, say, the day before he is to be sworn in as governor, Jindal would be governor still and could appoint the new senator at such time. If Vitter wants to avoid the headache of having to name someone and being accused of having “made a deal,” or in any event getting grief because he didn’t appoint someone else, he may decide to resign from the Senate a few days early (explaining that he had to concentrate on the governorship that he was about to assume, and that having his replacement be appointed earlier would help him get his feet wet before the new session in January) and allow Jindal to appoint the new Senator. But if Vitter wants to appoint his successor, he should talk to Jindal about it and ask the legislature to change the law so that Senate vacancies cannot be filled until, say, three days have elapsed (modeled after the law passed in Alaska to prevent Democrat Governor Knowles from appointing Sen. Frank Murkowski’s successor a second before Murkowski took the oath as governor).

Now, as to who Vitter (or Jindal) should appoint, it’s complicated. State Senator Elbert Guillery would be the most inspired choice, whether as a placeholder until the special election in November 2016 or as someone who could run for reelection and serve a couple of terms (he is 70 years old, so he would be 71 when appointed, 72 when reelected, and 78 if he were reelected a second time). Guillery has proven his conservative bona fides through his words and (most importantly) deeds, and arguably is our most eloquent spokesman as to how liberal policies have failed blacks—and all Americans—and why thinking Americans should join the GOP. As has been noted, increasing the GOP’s share of the black vote from the current 8% or so to 25% would break the backs of the Democrats pretty much nationwide and would create a permanent Republican majority in bith houses of Congress and a virtual lock on the presidency. Moreover, if we look at it electorally, Guillery would be the least likely of the potential Republican senators to lose a run-off against a populist Democrat such as one of the Landrieus, since Guillery has been elected and reelected in a black- majority state senate district (granted, running as a Democrat, but one with a very conservative platform and voting record) and no white Democrat would get 90% of the black vote against him. So Guillory would be my first choice for the job.

But Guillery is running for Lt. Governor in 2015, which throws a wrench in any plans Vitter or Jindal may have. If Guillery wins the election (as I believe that he will), he may not be willing to resign to take the Senate job the day after being sworn in as Lt. Governor, and everyone involved would face a potential backlash from the voters (and it could sunk Guillery’s reelection in November 2016). Only were Guillery to lose the Lt. Gov. election would Vitter or Jindal be free to appoint Guillery to the Senate without disresoecting the office of the Lt. Gov., but, of course, if Guillery can’t win the Lt. Gov. election it wiuld be a sign that perhaps he’s not as formidable a candidate as we had assumed. Maybe Vitter could appoint a placeholder and Guillery can run for the Senate in 2015, but it still would mean announcing a Senate run within at most a few months of becoming Lt. Gov. and facing the voters less than a year after becoming Lt. Gov, which may not go over well with voters.

So what to do? I think that the likeliest scenario in which Guillery could become a U.S. senator is if Vitter is so far ahead in the gubernatorial polls that his election is seen as a fait accompli and Dardennes announces that he’s forgoing his gubernatorial candidacy and instead running for reelection as Lt. Gov. That would give Guillery a graceful exit from the Lt. Gov. race under an agreement with Vitter and Jindal that he is to be appointed to the U.S. Senate after Vitter is elected governor (with Vitter resigning in December and Jindal making the appointment, so that Vitter can claim that he did not appoint his successor, much less appoint someone as part of a deal). But if Dardennes stays in the race and Vitter’s election isn’t viewed as a slam-dunk, then Guillery likely will continue running for Lt. Gov. and forego the chance to become a U.S. senator in the near future, if ever (he is 70, after all).

So who would that leave for Vitter or Jindal to appoint? Probably the next best choice would be Congressman Steve Scalise of the LA-01 (in the New Orleans suburbs: the most conservative and Republican CD in the state, if not the country), a conservative’s conservative that plays well with others (and is popular enough among House Republicans that he was elected to the leadershhip despite his relative lack of seniority. Scalise is 49 years old, so he could serve in the Senate for a long, long time if he si wished, and he’s Catholic (as is Vitter, and Guillery for that matter), which would give the state’s U.S. Senate delegation balance (Cassidy is a Protestant, and the last time LA didn’t have at least one Catholic in tbe U.S. Senate was over a quarter century ago). I think that Scalise would be a far better choice than Congressman John Fleming of LA-06 (Shreveport and surrounding areas), since Fleming (i) is not the conservative superstar that Scalise is, (ii) already is 63 years old, (iii) is a Protestant, and (iv) represents the least Republican, and most heavily black, GOP-held congressional district in LA, which could give the Democrats a shot in a special election to reace him (Fleming barely won the district when it opened up in 2008, and it wasn’t shored up in 2011 redistricting).

And that’s my two cents on how to fill the vacant Senate seat when Vitter resigns to become governor.