War Clouds

Townhall.com ^ | December 3, 2014 | Victor Davis Hanson

[Kaslin]

The world is changing and becoming even more dangerous -- in a way we've seen before.

In the decade before World War I, the near-hundred-year European peace that had followed the fall of Napoleon was taken for granted. Yet it abruptly imploded in 1914. Prior little wars in the Balkans had seemed to predict a much larger one on the horizon -- and were ignored.

The exhausted Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires were spent forces unable to control nationalist movements in their provinces. The British Empire was fading. Imperial Germany was rising. Czarist Russia was beset with revolutionary rebellion. As power shifted, decline for some nations seemed like opportunity for others.

The same was true in 1939. The tragedy of the Versailles Treaty of 1919 was not that it had been too harsh. In fact, it was far milder than the terms Germany had imposed on a defeated Russia in 1918 or the requirements it had planned for France in 1914.

[Former Proud Canadian]

Far be it for me to disagree with the great VDH but, I think the war has already started.

I don't know exactly when it started, maybe when the Stutsnex virus was inserted into an Iranian computer. Since then Russia, China, and North Korea have all been attacking western military and civilian systems on a daily basis. If that isn't war, I don't know what is.

[Vermont Lt]

100 years of peace before WWI?

Not sure if that is accurate.

The only way to avoid war would be a global economic reset. And no one is going to do that.

[rfreedom4u]

100 years of peace before WWI?

I guess the author of this doesn’t consider the Franco-Prussian War a war.

[Vermont Lt]

I was thinking the same thing. 1870’s right?

[rfreedom4u]

Yep. 1870-1871. Big Prussian win. Not to mention the following:

1864 Second Schleswig War
1866 Austro-Prussian War
1866–1869 Cretan Revolt
1867 Fenian Rising
1870–1871 Franco-Prussian War
1872–1876 Third Carlist War
1873–1874 Cantonal Revolution
1875–77 Herzegovina Uprising (1875–77)
1876–78 Serbo-Turkish War (1876–78)
1876–78 Montenegrin-Ottoman War (1876-1878)
1877–1878 Russo–Turkish War
1878 Epirus Revolt of 1878
1885 Serbo-Bulgarian War
1897 Greco–Turkish War

[ClearCase_guy]

Certainly true. But those wars were generally pretty small, and perhaps in all cases were neighbors fighting neighbors.

Napoleon marched through Germany and Poland to attack Russia. He marched through Spain to attack Portugal. He attacked Egypt.
Kaiser Wilhelm marched through Belgium to attack France, and through Poland to attack Russia. England attacked Turkey at Gallipoli.

Wars change borders when neighbors fight.
Wars change the world when armies travel vast distances to fight.

[logi_cal869]

The only way to avoid war would be a global economic reset.

You're right: It ain't happening. As I've tried elaborating in another thread, the US used to be the bulwark for stability and actions of our government the past decade or longer have made us weak in the world. We're leaderless, have gutted our military (of actual fighting leaders), leave a trail of destruction in our wake (including the latest narcissist's 'arab spring' actions) and compromise many alliances...all while engaging policies that make us weaker in the face of emerging power brokers & regional unrest.

He's not entirely accurate, but hits the nail on the head. The 'reset' will be a reshuffling of the global power structure and, imho, that will come in the form of war. Unfortunately, this reckless administration is promoting that outcome with its weak posture, policies & actions. The unilateral act of deploying US forces into a foreign theater as some bulwark in the wake of failed policies in some desperate manifestation of casus belli is more analogous to throwing fuel on the fire than defensively 'fighting a wildfire'...

[AlaskaErik]

And let’s not forget the Crimean War.

[captain_dave]

Europe between the fall of Napoleon in 1815 and the Great War of 1914-1918 (WW1), was hardly a peaceful place. Wars and revolutions raged constantly. The 1840s saw revolution in France. There were wars between Prussia and Denmark, Prussia and Austria, and the Franco-Prussian war of 1870 which resulted in the creation of the German Empire. The Italian peninsula unified in a series of wars into the Kingdom of Italy. Prussia, Austria-Hungary and Russia split up Poland (Duchy of Warsaw). Add in all the colonial wars and you have a pretty violent place. It only seems peaceful when compared to the 20th century’s European wars.

[Forward the Light Brigade]

100 years of peace? What about that little dust up called the American Civil War! Still, I too see the signs and hear the coming hoofbeats of the four horsemen. War is coming—WW III -—This time the good guys may not win. It will be like a giant purging of the CP, MultiCulturalist, Socialist, Crap, Maybe a blast of bitter cold air will bring forth a better world. It will solve the overpopulation problem. WW II took 6.5% of the world’s people, this may take 15% at least.

[huldah1776]

If it is the hoof beats, at least 1/3 of the world’s population dies, but I truly believe it will be more. Remember, it is not from war that we die.

Anyway, don’t like the way he made the whole nation of the US seem unified in these “weak” policies. These policies are not weak they are the agenda. As I posted earlier today, all part of the Reverend Wright theology.

[lentulusgracchus]

The Austro-Prussian War (started by Bismarck) and the Franco-Prussian War were major-power wars that destabilized Europe (German expansion) and led to World War I.

The Russo-Turkish War was also a major war that, like the Franco-Prussian War (introduction of machine guns), showed how more modern weapons would turn land war into a meatgrinder. The Russo-Turkish War was the first major war showing the supplantation of Napoleonic muzzle-loaders by modern breechloading and lever-action rifles.

There was no shortage of tea leaves to sift in any of these major regional wars.

[SunkenCiv]

An old postwar order crumbles amid American indifference. Hopes for true democracy in post-Soviet Russia, newly capitalist China or ascendant Turkey long ago were dashed. Tribalism, fundamentalism and terrorism are the norms in the Middle East as the nation-state disappears. Under such conditions, history's wars usually start when some opportunistic -- but often relatively weaker -- power does something unwise on the gamble that the perceived benefits outweigh the risks. That belligerence is only prevented when more powerful countries collectively make it clear to the aggressor that it would be suicidal to start a war that would end in the aggressor's sure defeat.

Note: this topic is from 12/04/2014. Thanks Kaslin. Victor Davis Hanson.