Disagree. Oil actually has much further to fall to reach equilibrium.
Not to many that are in the market agree with that.
Prices are still fluctuating but rising this morning.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3028.html?category=Energy&subcategory=Petroleum
In the short term I agree. But the price of oil is dropping because supply is up (thanks to U.S. production) and demand is down (thanks to the worldwide Obamarecession).
Low priced oil will go a long way towards increasing the worldwide economy. At the same time, U.S. production will drop or at the very least level off, because most of the recent boom in U.S. production is not profitable below $80 a barrel.
That will cause oil to slowly increase in price until a new equilibrium is reached. My guess is that prices will again level off at around $100 a barrel, in about a year or a year and a half.
So I think Pickens timeline is accurate, but I don't think that the Saudis have any incentive to cut their share of the oil production market to get there.
You are discounting increased demand. There is a natural tendency to use more when it is cheap. Works that way in every commodity.