Because Jeb Bush is too far to the Left for the Republican Party base, I would expect Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Rand Paul or Sarah Palin to run as the nominee of the New Federalist Party, which would be a fine name for the Tea Party movement with special resonance from early American history. That would split the Republicans.
That would set up 2016 as a parallel to the 1860 4-way election, with two new parties to eventually replace the two old parties. Either one party would win enough electoral votes with 35-40% of the popular vote, or the election would end up in the House according to the rules of the 12th Amendment.
It could be done. Our Constitution doesn’t mention parties, much less sanction them. And the Electoral College system will work just dandy without them.
Shoot, that’s what I’ve been trying to bring about for the last two presidential cycles. I feel exactly the same way about McCain and Romney as I do about Jeb Bush.
I think you are overestimating Bernie’s appeal.