I don’t think the Saudis will be able to defeat the technology of fracked wells.
Once they’re in operation, there’s no disincentive to production.
Really low prices might deter more exploration and drilling, but not existing production.
They won't shut them down at these prices. But they will cut back on the number of new ones they drill to replace the falling production rates.
I believe we will still see production growth at the current prices, but it will be significantly less than the growth we saw at $100.
This is a question I have, and haven’t found a reliable answer to. After a well is drilled and fracked...what is the breakover to continue pumping. It has to be less than the $65 +/- number being thrown around for total production cost.
Isn’t that the critical number...which (combined with the average number of years a well is productive) dictates how low the Saudis have to go?
Remember when Sara Palin said “Drill Baby Drill!” and the collective lefties went nuts? Remember how they said that it would take 10 to 20 years for American drilling to have a effect on oil prices? Now imagine what we could do with
drilling free of the Fed’s regulations.The Saudis fear American oil production.
“I don’t think the Saudis will be able to defeat the technology of fracked wells.”
The Obama EPA combined with the election of an Elizabeth Warren or Hillary Clinton administration in 2016 might do the trick, particularly with a compliant Republican leadership in Congress.