Posted on 12/01/2014 6:44:09 AM PST by thackney
...“In 2016, when OPEC completes this objective of cleaning up the American marginal market, the oil price will start growing again,” said Fedun. “The shale boom is on a par with the dot-com boom. The strong players will remain, the weak ones will vanish.”
No surprise, Friday was a bloodbath for shares of America’s oil and gas independents. Goodrich Petroleum fell 34% on the day, and is off 79% in three months. Swift Energy fell 30%, Penn Virginia and Sanchez Energy down 29%, SandRidge 26%. Some of these, like Swift, are highly leveraged, and there’s even some concern that bidding could dry up for the junk bonds issued in recent years to finance the U.S. oil boom — enough to cause a sudden credit crisis.
There’s plenty of stronger producers, like Devon Energy , Noble Energy and Pioneer Natural Resources have hedged a large portion of their oil production at higher prices. Drillers with land in the sweet spots of shale plays will survive the low price drubbing and may even keep growing output. And even after recent share losses, many frackers trade at solid valuations. Shares in Harold Hamm’s Continental Resources are still worth six times what they were at the nadir of the last oil price plunge in 2009.
Argus Media quoted the Iranian oil minister as saying that squeezing non-Opec production out of the market will take years rather than months.
Indeed there’s a real question as to how much pain OPEC nations and other exporters will be willing and able to endure at the hands of the Saudis. Oil journalist Derek Brower tweeted from Vienna last week that there was lots of anger at the OPEC meetings, with Algerian and Venezuelan oil ministers “furious” that the Saudis refused to cut output....
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Note how low the decline rates are after year 3
“What is the breakover to continue pumping. “
Opex is south of $20 per bbl
No. I have family from south Texas. They left because they didn’t want to live in north Mexico. But they (the illegals) now are on the path to citizenship. In the past, they mostly did not vote for fear of being deported. Now they, and more importantly their children, will.
Texas will flip blue in presidential elections soon. Between the Hispanic, the displace Californians, and the Yankee’s moving to where the jobs are, it is only a matter of time. Most expect it by the 2020 elections, more than a few expect it by 2016.
Nope.
I have family from South Texas. They had been living their for over a 100 years (one of my great grandpa’s brothers ended up there in 1880 or so). They left because they didn’t speak Spainish, kept having their fences trashed by migrants, and no longer felt safe. They are now in Nebraska or Colorado.
By in large, the Hispanic vote is Democrat. I agree that many are hard working social conservatives (we have some in my family, again south Texas), but they vote for the Dems by in large for the same reason my Catholic relatives do. They view the Democrats as “their” team.
Now I hope you are correct, but most stats suggest that you are not (with all the caveats about stats lying).
Saudi and Russia are not friends. But their interests are aligned at the moment. Russia doesn’t have the cash reserves that the house of Saud does, but she also doesn’t have the internal dissent. Saudi has been exporting its problems for decades, but they are starting to have issues with that.
Great point about who or what is shorting the oil markets. I wonder that also. Any ideas?
Meant to ping you to 25 also.
Again, I hope you are right.
That claim was made when the Dream Act first started.
The trend has not been in their favor.
The border counties do not dominate statewide elections.
“I don’t think the Saudis will be able to defeat the technology of fracked wells.”
The Obama EPA combined with the election of an Elizabeth Warren or Hillary Clinton administration in 2016 might do the trick, particularly with a compliant Republican leadership in Congress.
You can always use California as your example.
Yeah, about the only thing that could defeat the frackers would be the heavy hand of our death-cult government.
Bloodbath??? No, Blessing.
A beleaguered House of Saud believes it may force Moscow to abandon its support of Damascus, and Washington to scotch a deal with Tehran. All this by selling oil below the average spot price. That smacks of desperation. Additionally, it may be interpreted as the House of Saud dithering if not sabotaging the coalition of the cowards/clueless in its campaign against Caliph Ibrahim’s goons.
Quoted from the articles above.
................
As Tudor, Pickering & Holt noted in their morning note Monday, there may appear to be excess oil supply in the short run, “but make no mistake, the current oil price is going to crunch supply by late 2015/2016.”
Texas drilling permits fall 50 percent in November, data shows
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3232627/posts
An interesting question, who has been shorting the futures contracts for crude oil?
Looks like Tiger Global hedge fund is making a killing shorting oil through Cayman Islands-based shell companies.
Read more here:
http://nypost.com/2014/11/21/european-shorts-a-windfall-for-chase-colemans-tiger-global/
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