Thanks for the data and link. I didn't mean to suggest it was a drastic change. I had watched the trickle down from last summer.
Deep water and fracking have finally raised production levels to the point that prices have to come down for the market to clear.
I believe the recent significant change was Libya coming mostly back on line. Prior Libya shutdowns had been made up mostly by US Shale increasing production. As they recently started production ramping up, the slack was already gone.
I don't think the Offshore has really made much difference lately.
OPEC numbers (which include Libya):
Data for this Date Range July 31, 2014 32.16M June 30, 2014 31.86M May 31, 2014 31.82M April 30, 2014 31.94M March 31, 2014 31.82M Feb. 28, 2014 32.44M Jan. 31, 2014 32.31M Dec. 31, 2013 31.70M Nov. 30, 2013 31.50M Oct. 31, 2013 31.99M Sept. 30, 2013 31.95M Aug. 31, 2013 32.67M July 31, 2013 32.77M June 30, 2013 32.62M May 31, 2013 32.82M April 30, 2013 32.75M March 31, 2013 32.31M Feb. 28, 2013 32.14M Jan. 31, 2013 32.20M Dec. 31, 2012 32.38M Nov. 30, 2012 32.66M Oct. 31, 2012 32.72M Sept. 30, 2012 33.22M Aug. 31, 2012 33.55M July 31, 2012 33.29M
OPEC's October numbers:
June 30, 2012 33.39M May 31, 2012 33.29M April 30, 2012 33.75M March 31, 2012 33.49M Feb. 29, 2012 33.48M Jan. 31, 2012 33.12M Dec. 31, 2011 32.80M Nov. 30, 2011 32.50M Oct. 31, 2011 31.68M Sept. 30, 2011 32.05M Aug. 31, 2011 32.00M July 31, 2011 31.86M June 30, 2011 31.61M May 31, 2011 30.97M April 30, 2011 30.94M March 31, 2011 30.81M Feb. 28, 2011 31.98M Jan. 31, 2011 32.39M Dec. 31, 2010 31.81M Nov. 30, 2010 31.71M Oct. 31, 2010 31.45M Sept. 30, 2010 31.88M Aug. 31, 2010 31.85M July 31, 2010 31.80M June 30, 2010 31.78M
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has averaged 30.72 million bpd in October, down from a revised 30.84 million bpd in September, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.In other words, the glut isn't coming from an increase in OPEC production.