I believe the recent significant change was Libya coming mostly back on line. Prior Libya shutdowns had been made up mostly by US Shale increasing production. As they recently started production ramping up, the slack was already gone.OPEC numbers (which include Libya):
| Data for this Date Range |
|
| July 31, 2014 |
32.16M |
| June 30, 2014 |
31.86M |
| May 31, 2014 |
31.82M |
| April 30, 2014 |
31.94M |
| March 31, 2014 |
31.82M |
| Feb. 28, 2014 |
32.44M |
| Jan. 31, 2014 |
32.31M |
| Dec. 31, 2013 |
31.70M |
| Nov. 30, 2013 |
31.50M |
| Oct. 31, 2013 |
31.99M |
| Sept. 30, 2013 |
31.95M |
| Aug. 31, 2013 |
32.67M |
| July 31, 2013 |
32.77M |
| June 30, 2013 |
32.62M |
| May 31, 2013 |
32.82M |
| April 30, 2013 |
32.75M |
| March 31, 2013 |
32.31M |
| Feb. 28, 2013 |
32.14M |
| Jan. 31, 2013 |
32.20M |
| Dec. 31, 2012 |
32.38M |
| Nov. 30, 2012 |
32.66M |
| Oct. 31, 2012 |
32.72M |
| Sept. 30, 2012 |
33.22M |
| Aug. 31, 2012 |
33.55M |
| July 31, 2012 |
33.29M |
| |
|
| June 30, 2012 |
33.39M |
| May 31, 2012 |
33.29M |
| April 30, 2012 |
33.75M |
| March 31, 2012 |
33.49M |
| Feb. 29, 2012 |
33.48M |
| Jan. 31, 2012 |
33.12M |
| Dec. 31, 2011 |
32.80M |
| Nov. 30, 2011 |
32.50M |
| Oct. 31, 2011 |
31.68M |
| Sept. 30, 2011 |
32.05M |
| Aug. 31, 2011 |
32.00M |
| July 31, 2011 |
31.86M |
| June 30, 2011 |
31.61M |
| May 31, 2011 |
30.97M |
| April 30, 2011 |
30.94M |
| March 31, 2011 |
30.81M |
| Feb. 28, 2011 |
31.98M |
| Jan. 31, 2011 |
32.39M |
| Dec. 31, 2010 |
31.81M |
| Nov. 30, 2010 |
31.71M |
| Oct. 31, 2010 |
31.45M |
| Sept. 30, 2010 |
31.88M |
| Aug. 31, 2010 |
31.85M |
| July 31, 2010 |
31.80M |
| June 30, 2010 |
31.78M |
OPEC's October numbers:
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has averaged 30.72 million bpd in October, down from a revised 30.84 million bpd in September, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.
In other words, the glut isn't coming from an increase in OPEC production.
Again, I appreciate the real numbers. But back in July, we were still looking at $100 oil. The significant price drop has come later.
From late October: Libya now pumps at least 800,000 barrels a day, four times more than five months ago, when Thinni's government managed to end a rebel blockade of oil ports in the east. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/us-libya-oil-idUSKCN0IC18520141023
Also impacting prices are the strength of the dollar.
And it is some falling demand, along with speculation of how far that demand might drop before world production falls.
It is not just one driving force. Saudi, along with other other contribute.