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FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Forecast (up to 68.5% - season high)
FiveThirtyEight.com ^ | 10/31/2014 | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/31/2014 8:02:13 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2

FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model combines hundreds of opinion polls with historical and demographic information to calculate odds for each Senate race. We estimate the probability that each party will win control of the Senate by running those odds through thousands of simulations. The forecast is updated regularly.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; senate
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To: Eccl 10:2

Not looking good for Childers.


21 posted on 10/31/2014 9:15:52 AM PDT by Lisbon1940
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To: InterceptPoint; Eccl 10:2

NYSlimes just added (10/31) NC and Kay Hagen to the “tossup” category.

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/comparisons.html


22 posted on 10/31/2014 9:27:51 AM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: Lisbon1940

I know what Cochran did to get the nomination this time was despicable. But we must hold this seat. Please tell your friends to hold their noses and GOTV for Cochran.

Let’s win the Senate, and go on Cruz control!

We will deal with Cochran later.


23 posted on 10/31/2014 9:44:35 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: Eccl 10:2
If they could be sure of the majority, they should vote for Childers. If the Senate majority is in doubt, they have a tough moral decision to make. Cochran in this case is the greater evil, with that disgusting primary campaign.

JMHO

24 posted on 10/31/2014 9:59:50 AM PDT by grania
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To: grania

Completely agree. I would love to see Cochran get fully embarrassed over what he did. But I would love to see us get the Senate majority more. I love the poll trends, but I absolutely do not underestimate the ability of the other party to go to ANY length to steal the key elections.


25 posted on 10/31/2014 10:12:05 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: InterceptPoint

Nate Silver nailed it last election.


26 posted on 10/31/2014 10:18:05 AM PDT by gogeo (If you are Tea Party, the Republican Party does not want you.)
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To: Scoutmaster

That’s powerful.


27 posted on 10/31/2014 10:19:24 AM PDT by gogeo (If you are Tea Party, the Republican Party does not want you.)
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To: gogeo
I agree, so I leaped into the innerwebz.

The man in the video is Elbert Guillory, a Louisiana attorney and member of the Louisiana State Senate. He and I share a birthday, but he was born in 1944. A registered Republican, but not always so. Interesting background.

A Republican who became a Democrat to run as a candidate for the Louisiana statehouse. In 2013, he switched his party affiliation back to Republican on the day he received a Frederick Douglass award.

Raised by divorced parents. Father, a Roman Catholic and a bootlegger. Mother, a Baptist and school teacher. Navy vet. Aspired to be a physician. Attended a Baptist theology school but was never ordained. Is now a Roman Catholic. Expelled from historically black Southern University because he wrote an editorial for the school newspaper referring to Dem US Senator (LA) Allen Ellender as a "lunatic". B.A. from historically black historically black Norfolk State University. J.D. from Rutgers.

The Free At Last PAC website contains more of his videos.

I'll look for the one I saw.

28 posted on 10/31/2014 11:17:03 AM PDT by Scoutmaster (Opinions don't affect facts. But facts should affect opinions, and do, if you're rational)
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To: Scoutmaster

Will Elbert Guillory be the one to lead his people off the plantation?


29 posted on 10/31/2014 8:58:19 PM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
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To: txhurl
On his own, no, IMHO. He has no stage and he is too old. I imagine his PAC will remain as anonymous as it was when I was introduced to it.

What influence do you think Guillory could have a with a national mic and stage for a couple of years?

30 posted on 11/01/2014 6:16:44 AM PDT by Scoutmaster (Opinions don't affect facts. But facts should affect opinions, and do, if you're rational)
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To: txhurl; bigboy
I'm sorry. I thought I was responding to you on the "Why I Am A Republican" - POWERFUL video by Black State Senator thread, where I shared an Elbert Guillory video.

That video. That's the Guillory video you should watch.

As Freeper bigboy wrote after viewing it: "Speechless. Nothing more can be said."

31 posted on 11/01/2014 6:24:37 AM PDT by Scoutmaster (Opinions don't affect facts. But facts should affect opinions, and do, if you're rational)
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To: Scoutmaster

He was just on Neil Cavuto, very impressive.


32 posted on 11/01/2014 8:32:29 AM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
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To: txhurl
I can imagine. I determined that I was simply slow to the draw. Guillory's been around since he changed parties. Wherever he was, I wasn't.

I left links to some additional Guillory speeches and interviews at the Why Am I A Republican thread.

33 posted on 11/01/2014 10:27:09 AM PDT by Scoutmaster (Opinions don't affect facts. But facts should affect opinions, and do, if you're rational)
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To: Scoutmaster

I like Cavuto personally, but that guy is a flaming RINO. He had Cornyn on right after Guillory and they were practically undressing each other, Cornyn telling his usual no-really-i’m-a-conservative-and-mcconnell-will-be-a-great-majority-leader with Cavuto just smiling and nodding. Must be an Amnesty guy.


34 posted on 11/01/2014 10:31:01 AM PDT by txhurl (2014: Stunned Voters do Stunning Things!)
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