Posted on 10/27/2014 4:07:33 AM PDT by Kaslin
You might expect a headline on the WallStreetJournal.com website over the weekend that read:
"Poll: GOP Expands Advantage Days Before Midterm Election"
But this line at the top of an MSNBC piece on the state of major Senate campaigns might surprise you:
"The momentum in these races, however, has swung mostly in the Republican Party's direction, giving the GOP a clear path to winning the majority."
And here is how the Washington-based website Politico wrote its headline:
"Polls Give Republicans Edge in Critical States"
What got everyone's attention were two polls taken in the major battleground states and released over the weekend.
South Dakota, Wyoming, and West Virginia are seats currently held by Democrats but there is almost no chance that they will retain any of them so they represent three of the six net seats the GOP has to pick up to be the majority in the Senate.
Keeping in mind there are still eight days to go, here are the states in question: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
The GOP has to pick up three of those six and not lose either Kansas or Georgia.
In five of those six races the GOP candidate has a small lead. Inside the margin of error for the most part; but they are moving in the Republicans' direction.
For example, in North Carolina the incumbent, Kay Hagen and the GOP challenger Thom Tillis are now tied at 43-43. Hagen has held a small, but stubborn lead all election season.
In Kansas, the Independent candidate, Greg Orman, is clinging to a one percentage point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Roberts 45-44.
In Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst has a three point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley by 49-46.
Polls are like buoys in a squall: They bob up and down with even minor changes in the sea surface.
So why the disturbance in the political force?
Democratic pollster Peter Hart who helped conduct one of the polls said,
"The Democrats, who badly need some momentum, find little comfort in these results some ten days out from the election. The thread holding things together for them is both more slender and now even frayed."
Is it Ebola? Isis? President Obama?
Probably some of all three.
The Presidents average approval rating (as of last night on RealClearPolitics.com) was 41.2 -about where it has been stuck throughout the election season.
As unpopular as the Republican "brand" might be, voters are unhappy with Democrats.
Janet Hook, reporting on one of the polls in the WSJ wrote:
"Some 52% of likely voters in the survey said they wanted the election to produce a Republican-led Congress, while 41% favored Democratic control."
That is an 11 percentage point bulge for GOP candidates. Hook also pointed out that represents a gain of six percentage points from a poll just a week earlier when Republicans enjoyed only a five point lead.
As we know, this is not a national election. In fact, we never have a national election.
These elections will be decided state-by-state. Both Republicans and Democrats are touting what is known as the "ground game" - the house-by-house effort to identify supportive voters and get them to vote, either in advance or on election day.
This is different from the "air war" which centers around TV advertising and is typically negative, but also includes automated phone calls, direct mail, and increasingly, Internet and social media advertising.
In 2012 I was told repeatedly by Democrats that Republicans were underestimating young and minority turnout for President Obama's re-election. They were right.
Mid-term elections - called that because they occur in the middle of a Presidential term - tend to have a far lower turnout due to a diminished amount of enthusiasm - or interest in the election.
Almost everyone can name the President. Far fewer can name one, much less both, of their U.S. Senators, and Members of Congress can safely go shopping for Halloween candy without fear of being mobbed.
As we have seen time and time again, polls are not predictive. They sense the mood of the electorate when they are taken. This weekend might well be looked back upon as the tipping point in the 2014 elections, but it requires candidates' supporters to actually get out and vote.
But, given the numbers this weekend, the path to the voting booth appears to be downhill for Republican candidates and uphill for Democrats.
Sounds like the DNC will order up some more illegal alien votes to make sure that Americans do not decide the fate of the USA.
Wrong; Enzi is a Republican; may be a RINO but not Dem.
Here’s the routes they’ll be taking.
http://www.krgv.com/news/mexican-cartels-expanding-operations-in-the-united-states/
And that’s year old news. Democrats had a year to gnaw on the fact their replacements have been rolling in steadily. Likely not making them feel too good about themselves.
Or maybe it’s this:
The only thing the socialists have left is terrorist attacks at polling places on election day.....and that will not stop me!
That should read Montana.
Days after the Canadian soldier was shot dead at the military shrine, a hatchet-wielding man, a member of the hallowed "religion of peace," savagely attacked and wounded NYC police officers. Later, kind and compassionate progressive City Officials said they "didn’t believe" the axe-killer had any connection to terrorism......
Of course not...only an intolerant racist would think this kindly man with an axe is (horrors) an actual "terrorist." In fact, the peace-loving axe-wielder meant no harm....he was here at the express invitation of the progressive Obama administration. Read on.
DHS SIGNS OFF ON Obama admin's law to let
into the US, immigrants with 'limited' terror contact
The Daily Caller | 2/5/14 / FR Posted by Nachum
The Obama administration has issued new exemptions to a law that bars certain asylum-seekers and refugees who provided “limited material support” to terrorists who are believed to pose no threat from the U.S.
The Department of Homeland Security and the State Department published the new exemptions Wednesday in the Federal Register to narrow a ban in the Immigration and Nationality Act excluding refugees and asylum seekers who had provided limited material support, no matter how minor, to terrorists.
“These exemptions cover five kinds of limited material support that have adversely and unfairly affected refugees and asylum seekers with no tangible connection to terrorism: material support that was insignificant in amount or provided incidentally in the course of everyday social, commercial, family or humanitarian interactions, or under significant pressure,” a DHS official explained to The Daily Caller.
Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson and Secretary of State John Kerry signed the exemptions. DHS contends that the law change is “commonsense” and that immigration procedures will remain the same in other respects. (Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
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THIS NEEDS TO GO VIRAL: Americans demand to know what exactly did 2014 Democrat candidates do about Obama letting terrorists into the US.
<><>Colorado's Sen Mark Udall,
<><>Iowa's Cong Braley,
<><> Louisiana's Sen Mary Landrieu,
<><>Michigan's Gary Peters,
<><>Georgia's Michelle Nunn,
<><> North Carolina's Sen Kay Hagan,
<><> New Hampshire's Sen Jean Shaheen
<><> Minnesota's Sen Al Franken.
NOTE WELL---Kansas Senate candidate Greg Orman is running as an "independent"....but Orman exhibits all the signs of a tried-and-true Democrat: he's got a (sniffle) "Heart of Gold."
<><>he has given major contributions to Democrat candidates,
<><> Orman sucked-up to pro-abortion women, and,
<><> he's earned the endorsement of the AFL-CIO.
The buzz is Big Pharma is running out of digitalis---b/c Democrats are downing it like it was Skittles, in an effort to keep their "Hearts of Gold" beating til election day.
Bloomberg Politics reported that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will be spending $1 million in an effort to defeat S/Dakota incumbent Repub Rounds -- a serious late-in-the-game investment for South Dakota’s relatively inexpensive media market. The news followed reports that Harvard Law professor Lawrence Lessig’s Mayday PAC would be spending $1 million to support Democrat Weiland.
Can some one tell me the max number of seats republicans can pick up in the senate? It’s way too early for me to do all that complex ciphering.
Anything less than 9 will be considered a failure.
Contrary to widespread beliefs, the DNC only uses illegal alien votes where they haven't rigged the voting machines. /s
NC has picture voter ID requirement. Early voted today.
The GOP will not gain a majority in the Senate, and they will have no one but themselves to blame.
If, by some miracle, the Republicans do manage to eke out majorities in both chambers of Congress, nothing will change from the way things are today.
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