95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval. [1]
Unless the sentence structure is somehow misleading, this passage appears to indicate the following:
• 95% of Ebola incubations occur from 1 – 21 days
• 3% of Ebola incubations occur from 21 – 42 days
• 2% of Ebola incubations are not explained (why?)
If this interpretation of the WHO’s statistics are correct, it would mean that:
• 1 in 20 Ebola infections may result in incubations lasting significantly longer than 21 days
• The 21-day quarantine currently being enforced by the CDC is entirely insufficient to halt an outbreak
• People who are released from observation or self-quarantine after 21 days may still become full-blown Ebola patients in the subsequent three weeks,
even if they have shown no symptoms of infection during the first 21 days.
(Yes, read that again…)
I fully understand the statistics, and that they may need to be revised for different strains of virus.
95% is pretty good.... 98% is better, but 42 days (six weeks) is a looong time. People who have been exposed should be warned, but at some point, you can’t keep them quarantined any longer.
I’m not wedded to the 21 days, but I don’t know if doubling the time for the extra 3% of safety is doable from a behavioral and societal point of view.