I fully understand the statistics, and that they may need to be revised for different strains of virus.
95% is pretty good.... 98% is better, but 42 days (six weeks) is a looong time. People who have been exposed should be warned, but at some point, you can’t keep them quarantined any longer.
I’m not wedded to the 21 days, but I don’t know if doubling the time for the extra 3% of safety is doable from a behavioral and societal point of view.
If you dont quarantine the disease, it will burn itself out after it runs out of victims.
I don't like the idea of a 42 day quarantine either, but based on the information we have now it seems to make sense.
This generation on the earth has never faced a pandemic before, but I prefer to error on the side of COMMON SENSE rather than depend on RISK . The Spanish Flu killed 3% of the worlds population , yet it was enough to end WW I , and that was a pandemic.