You have to look at the internals of the poll. SUSA will release this in a couple of days. In NC, for example, they are perpetually oversampling Dems when compared to a base of voters. That may be the case here...
At a local and state level Kentucky is still a heavily democrat centered state. There has been only one Republican governor since 1970 and he was a disaster.
I detest McConnell and loath Grimes, both are useless to the state. McConnell may pull out a win if he gets enough cross over democrats from the eastern coal counties to off set the conservatives he said he didn’t want or need. I have ran into many Republicans, not really conservatives, but Party Pukes I call them, who really-really don’t like McConnell, if he loses his Party Pukes he’s in trouble. McConnell has really acted pretty damned stupid this election cycle.