Posted on 10/12/2014 6:36:56 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Is it a race after all?
After trailing by as many as seven points in every major poll since June, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes now holds a slim lead over Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, according to a Bluegrass Poll survey released last week.
Grimes, Kentuckys secretary of state, leads the five-term incumbent 46 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, according to the poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for Louisvilles Courier-Journal and three other state media outlets. Libertarian candidate David Patterson had 3 percent support in the poll, while 7 percent said they were undecided.
The poll follows an internal survey conducted a week earlier that also showed Grimes with a 2-point edge over the six-term incumbent, according to campaign sources.
Outlier?
McConnells campaign, though, wasnt impressed.
After fourteen straight public polls all showing Sen. McConnell with a clear lead, this Bluegrass Poll is obviously an outlier, McConnell campaign spokeswoman Allison Moore said in a statement. We’re very comfortable with where this race stands and are confident Sen. McConnell will be re-elected in November.
Of course, one would expect such a response from the Republicans camp.
But Geoffrey Skelley, an independent political analyst with the University of Virginia, agrees that the poll doesnt necessarily represent a meaningful shift in the dynamics of the race.
It seems likely this is an outlier, he said. As always, one poll means little. This one will need confirmation from other surveys before we consider altering out outlook on the race.
Grassroots Strategy Paying Off?
For now, Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball, the U.Va. forecast model for which Skelley serves as associate editor, has McConnell winning the race by a small but definitive margin.
But Grimes campaign manager Jonathan Hurst said in a statement that the poll reflects the overwhelming grassroots enthusiasm Alison and our campaign see every day across the commonwealth.
Democrats also point to the polls finding that 58 percent of registered voters believe McConnell should be replaced, a figure consistent with what other surveys have found recently.
Even more alarming for McConnell is the percentage of Republicans and conservatives who believe hes been in Washington too long 27 and 33 percent, respectively.
Grain Of Salt
Still, University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss said the polls results and especially its 6-point swing from a month ago, when it had McConnell up by four points wont likely have Republicans changing their game plan anytime soon.
I would take these results with a grain of salt, given that they deviate from everything weve seen recently, Voss told the Courier-Journal.
Indeed, a poll released on Wednesday showed McConnell back on top by 4 points, a result more in line with polls of the last several months.
The McConnell campaigns strategy has focused on tying Grimes to an unpopular President Obama, suggesting she would be little more than a rubber stamp for the president and his policies.
That tactic, which Republicans nationwide have employed this year as Obamas favorability ratings stay mired in the mid to upper 30s, has proved effective in other states. The GOP needs to flip six seats in the Senate to take control of the chamber and make McConnell majority leader in the process and most analysts believe the party will reach that mark if current trends continue through Election Day.
Still, the Kentucky race is among the closest in the nation in this mid-term election year, and will likely go down to the wire.
Trouble On Tape
Grimes has insisted she isnt an Obama clone and will stand up to the president when his policies go against Kentuckians best interests.
But the Democrat and her campaign havent helped themselves in convincing voters of her sincerity. The Grimes camp was stung last week when a secretly recorded video was released showing local Democratic officials questioning Grimes commitment to coal. The tape was produced by conservative activist James OKeefe.
On the tape, the videographer asks Democratic officials what Grimes intentions are regarding coal.
If we can get her elected do you think she is going to do the right thing and shes gonna try to wipe out that coal industry and go for better resources? says the videographer, who was secretly documenting the encounter.
I absolutely think she is, responds Fayette County Democratic Party operative Gina Bess.
She has to say that, added Juanita Rodriguez of the Warren County Democratic Party. But you know what? Politics is a game. You do what you have to do to get [elected]. Its a lying game unfortunately.
McConnells campaign pounced once the video was released, calling the comments by Democrats shocking and clear evidence that Grimes wont go to bat for Kentucky coal.
The level of deception that Alison Grimes and her campaign engages in to appear pro-coal despite obvious opposition is both disturbing and dangerous,” Moore said.
Grimes Responds
The Grimes camp fired back, calling OKeefe a discredited con artist, and pointing out that no one on the tape works for Grimes or her campaign.
“The individuals in the video aren’t on our staff, said Grimes spokeswoman Charly Norton. The United Mine Workers of America endorsed Alison because of her unwavering commitment to Kentucky coal miners. The fact that McConnell’s campaign relies on a convicted criminal with a known history of absurd and deceptive projects is telling as McConnell attempts to make this race about anything but the loss of 25,000 coal jobs on his watch.
OKeefe, who has gained a reputation for secretly recording Democrats and liberals making embarrassing and contradictory comments, pleaded guilty in 2010 to a charge of entering federal property under false pretenses. The charge stemmed from an incident in which he and two other men secretly tried to record Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieus New Orleans office.
Whether the tape costs Grimes voters remains to be seen, of course, but Skelley, the U.Va. analyst, isnt sure it will make a difference one way or the other. He believes the environment that could lead to a GOP takeover of the Senate will push McConnell across the finish line first.
Kentucky is a Republican state at the federal level, he said . [McConnell] may not be popular, but [hes] a Republican in an environment favorable to his party in a state that doesn’t like the president.
Race to the bottom.
I hope he loses!....There. I said it!
Me too. Would be amazing if we picked up the senate without him.
Are we not supposed to say it?
He needs to fog. Seems to little old me that winning thecsenatewojls br worthless with this mafiosa in charge
Even with McConnell’s faults, anyone who chooses a liberal democrat over him cannot be in their right mind, IMO..
I don’t. There I said it.
When you are so much like the Democrat opponent it’s hard to tell the difference.
It comes down to basics.
As I recall, Jim Bunning used to squeak by with the narrowest of margins, despite being the only Senator in the history of the US Senate who had pitched a perfect game in the major leagues.
RE: I hope he loses!....There. I said it!
So, you mean you want one more Democrat in the Senate so that there will be more liberal judges and justices in our courts?
I don’t.
one of these days the stupid party (the GOP) is going to learn that letting democrats pick our candidates is not working.
U Go Gryl!
Looks like a lot of folks at FR are cheering for the death of the coal industry...
The Rove theory - which is that they can run Crapweasel (R) and we will bring them victory after being shat upon - is about to be severely tested.
The poll is funky dem juju. Grimes is a mindless ditz. McConnell will win.
McConnell is “He who puts the STUPID into the STUPID PARTY”. He should have spent more time waging war on the DemocRATS and less time warring on the Tea Party (aka “his base”).
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