Ebola As ISIS Bio-Weapon?

Forbes ^ | 10/5/2014 | Bruce Dorminey

[markomalley]

ISIS may already be thinking of using Ebola as a low-tech weapon of bio-terror, says a national security expert, who notes that the “Islamic State of Iraq and Syria” and terror groups like it wouldn’t even have to weaponize the virus to attempt to wreak strategic global infection.

Such groups could simply use human carriers to intentionally infect themselves in West Africa, then disseminate the deadly virus via the world’s air transportation system. Or so says Capt. Al Shimkus, Ret., a Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College.

“The individual exposed to the Ebola Virus would be the carrier,” Shimkus told Forbes. “In the context of terrorist activity, it doesn’t take much sophistication to go to that next step to use a human being as a carrier.”

[i_robot73]

Can think of a scenario quite easily. 2-3 sick terrorists in a major metropolitan area (NY, Chicago, LA, etc.) and do the night-club circuit.

Just mingle a bit w/ the sardines on the ‘dance floor’, maybe a ‘covered’ sneeze or two, then hit the next club. Rinse and repeat in a few different cities and you’ve got all that’s needed.

I haven’t even gotten around to contaminating the water supply (what’s the town/city that kept their ‘clean’ water in the lake - and someone was taking a pizz in it and arrested??)

Be like Cabin Fever...

[Pollster1]

Does an Ebola carrier get all those virgins?

I'm sure the terrorist Ebola carrier gets the virgins, but as a punishment. All the terrorist's organs (including the important one for that pleasure) will have liquified from the virus.

[ansel12]

I find it difficult to imagine a scenario where a terrorist would be able to efficiently spread the disease.

It would be one of the easiest terrorists attacks to do, get a suicide Muslim to accept the infection, quarantine him in a house here, when he became symptomatic then keep him alive as long as possible to infect other volunteers, who would then scatter throughout the U.S. after having been instructed how to spread it in the most efficient manner during their remaining lifespan, and perhaps even being able to take out a few medical people once they are caught and isolated, if they are.

That is if they even need a human to begin the process, instead of just using vials smuggled across the border.

[Veto!]

I wondered about the virgin thing too. Mohammed was all about swords.

[Loud Mime]

Too much like Tom Clancy’s “Rainbow Six”

creeeps me out.

[exDemMom]

I wouldn't stake my life on that. Ebola Tai Forrest (Cote d'Ivorie) was discovered when researchers became infected during a necropsy on a dead chimp discovered there. While I have not been able to find information on how fresh the corpse was--if such information exists, that any virus present had been present more than two hours after death is entirely possible.

The carcass was one of a troop of chimpanzees that had been monitored for 15 years, and was freshly dead. According to the researchers, other members of the troop had been found dead with "obvious signs of hemorrhage" but were too far advanced in decomposition to analyze. The freshly dead chimpanzee was autopsied in the field, and tissues were formalin-fixed and sent to France for analysis.

Reference: Le Guenno et al., The Lancet (1995) 345;8960: 1271–1274.

So it appears that what my friend said about viral inactivation kinetics in dead bodies applies here.

[Smokin' Joe]

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: Filoviruses have been reported capable to survive for weeks in blood and can also survive on contaminated surfaces, particularly at low temperatures (4°C) Footnote 52 Footnote 61. One study could not recover any Ebolavirus from experimentally contaminated surfaces (plastic, metal or glass) at room temperature Footnote 61. In another study, Ebolavirus dried onto glass, polymeric silicone rubber, or painted aluminum alloy is able to survive in the dark for several hours under ambient conditions (between 20 and 250C and 30–40% relative humidity) (amount of virus reduced to 37% after 15.4 hours), but is less stable than some other viral hemorrhagic fevers (Lassa) Footnote 53. When dried in tissue culture media onto glass and stored at 4 °C, Zaire ebolavirus survived for over 50 days Footnote 61. This information is based on experimental findings only and not based on observations in nature. This information is intended to be used to support local risk assessments in a laboratory setting.

Public Health Agency of Canada EBOLAVIRUS PATHOGEN SAFETY DATA SHEET - INFECTIOUS SUBSTANCES

While, admittedly, viability is a multivariate situation, I find it hard to believe that the virus cannot survive as long on/in a corpse as it can in fomites.

[exDemMom]

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: Filoviruses have been reported capable to survive for weeks in blood and can also survive on contaminated surfaces, particularly at low temperatures (4°C)

Keeping the virus at 4°C is keeping it at a temperature favorable to survival. Many microorganisms can survive for months or years at 4°C. Is that even applicable to the real question here, which is, how likely is it that an Ebola patient will transmit the disease to another person under natural conditions, without close contact (e.g. by fomites)?

In a way, all of these "what if" scenarios about virus survival are red herrings. We know very definite ways in which the virus spreads, and we have to take steps to eliminate those ways. For instance, if you are a caregiver, you wear protective gear. For all of those "what ifs", I'd say that they are not worth worrying about. Instead of working yourself up over whether that debris in the damp corner could harbor live virus a week from now, you just spritz bleach into the corner. And you spritz bleach everywhere you think the patient might have touched. Problem solved, and fomites aren't a concern.

I will remark about the PHA of Canada Ebola MSDS: when I first saw it, and checked the references against what it said, the references did not exactly support everything stated in the MSDS. I would use the MSDS as a source to find other references, but I would not use it as a primary source of information.

While, admittedly, viability is a multivariate situation, I find it hard to believe that the virus cannot survive as long on/in a corpse as it can in fomites.

According to my microbiologist friend, when someone dies, their internal pH changes quickly. The altered pH is not conducive to virus survival. She doesn't think a virus could survive more than a couple of hours.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[freespirit2012]

You are joking right? So there is no danger in the burial practices of washing the dead after two hours?

[Smokin' Joe]

But surely, the response time for the undertakers in West Africa is over two hours, at least often. Yet it is the most dangerous job in the world at the moment.

If you wait to see the peer reviewed article, it will be sorting out what happened, not what IS happening.

Fomite survival time, even virus survival time in fluids is longer than survival of the virus in the corpse, from what your friend said, even at room temperature.

[Smokin' Joe]

You’re Welcome, Alamo-Girl!

[exDemMom]

Off topic a little [and maybe your knowledge can help], there’s one thing that really troubles me about Obama: why doesn’t he expdedite Zmapp? This is tobacco harvest season. Why will it take until spring?

The tobacco used to produce the ZMapp is not the same as that grown commercially; it must be grown under controlled conditions, and "infected" with the blueprint to make the antibodies. Since the antibodies are not naturally plant proteins, it takes a while for the plant to make them and the plant does not make a lot. It takes a large number of plants to produce a small amount of antibody. After the plants make the protein, it must be extracted and purified, which can take several days or longer. The company that made the ZMapp is not scaled to large production runs, but only to small experimental size lots. One journalist deduced that "it can take a couple of months for the facility to come up to full speed, after which it can produce 20 to 40 treatment courses a month." (This is a single sentence quoted from NYT; I hope this quote is allowable to post here.) Even at the upper end, 40 treatment courses per month falls way short of what is needed. Furthermore, we still do not know if the ZMapp had effect in those highly publicized cases where it was used.

Despite Obama's election campaign claims to have the godlike power to lower the oceans and change the earth's temperature, he really does not have the power to overcome physical reality to make ZMapp production fast.

[exDemMom]

You are joking right? So there is no danger in the burial practices of washing the dead after two hours?

As far as I know, in African cultures, families do not wait two hours but begin to prepare the body for funeral immediately. For a short time, the body is extremely infectious to the touch. Many Ebola cases have resulted from body preparation and burial practices.

[exDemMom]

But surely, the response time for the undertakers in West Africa is over two hours, at least often. Yet it is the most dangerous job in the world at the moment.

I do not know that Africa has undertakers, and traditionally, families prepare and bury their own dead. At this time, to control the spread of disease, governments in the affected countries have directed that families do NOT prepare their dead for burial in the traditional manner. Specially trained teams are sent out to collect the dead and bury them.

This article describes the burial teams, and some of the cultural factors that have led to the Ebola outbreak growing so large.

This video shows the "burial boys" at work. Notice how the villagers respond to them with anger and mistrust. It's really hard to impose disease control measures when they conflict with traditional culture.

In Africa, as elsewhere, there is a whole range of responses to the outbreak. Some people insist on adhering to cultural traditions, while others leave bodies where they died and give them wide berth.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Thank you again for your expertise. But as they say, ‘Never underestimate your enemy.’

They’ve demonstrated wild imaginations in the past: pressure cooker bombs, shoe bombs, snipers, etc.

[Smokin' Joe]

I have been aware of this. By “undertakers” I was referring to the burial teams, not anything like the standard US undertaker.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Bingo, easy. And I already thought of an endless pool of victims. Easy as pie and would appeal to most any Islamo-terrorist. All they would need is a mullah’s [satanic] blessing.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Greeneyes mentioned a medicine success story from Japan [20,000 doses]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3191066/posts?page=3142#3142

Is that a more cost effective way to go?

[If not, I’ll ‘blank post’ the investment value of any silver bullet that kills off this strain.]

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

If we can put a man on the moon, we can expand ZMapp production. It’s just a matter of budgeting priorities.

Whatever proves to be the best solution will be worth its weight in gold. It’s a national security matter for all nations, a potential profit gain that could be huge. And just as NASA blessed us with countless inventions, this would too in countless ways unless something cheaper does the same job.