Residents watch Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on a screen during his televised speech at a festival celebrating Resistance and Liberation Day, in Bint Jbeil, May 25, 2014. (photo by REUTERS/Sharif Karim)
Posted on 09/27/2014 4:30:33 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
Residents watch Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on a screen during his televised speech at a festival celebrating Resistance and Liberation Day, in Bint Jbeil, May 25, 2014. (photo by REUTERS/Sharif Karim)
Nice analysis, I edited it for length and removed the agitprop about Israeli occupation.
Rebels Reportedly Control Syrian Golan, Entering Lebanon
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/184922#.VCdGpfldWSo
Middle East Updates / Bomb explodes at Hezbollah checkpoint in eastern Lebanon
http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/middle-east-updates/1.616781
IDF credited with saving Irish troops from jihadists on Golan [September 7, 2014]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3202415/posts
My real concern here is if the Jabhat al-Nusra will later turn on Israel. If they remain cooperative with Israel, excellent. If not, Israel will have bit off on a false premise that may cost them dearly.
These groups seem to morph in an instant. You just never know.
Al-Nusra and ISIS don’t have an air force and don’t know how to fly as much as a helicopter, so they are less a threat to Israel than Assad and Hexbollah.
Israel *knows for certain* that the Hizzies will eventually attack. There is no forever, particularly in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the two terrorist groups keep each other busy, and the various groups (on all sides, including his) have defanged Assad.
ISIS is much more effective and better armed than the previous rebel groups, and clearly are a match for Iran’s proxy thugs. Their annihilation will be of benefit to Lebanon, and the result will be accepted by most parties in Lebanon.
I do wonder about that Syrian plane shot down over Israeli airspace — was it a defection gone wrong, or an attempt by Assad to raise all the factions to attack Israel? Or, was it poor training / stupidity?
Israelis are being very tactic here. ISIS and similar sunni forces, despite their brutality, are not as organized and State-sponsored (yet) like Hezbollah is.
Hopefully this short-term tactics does not backfire.
Also, may be this is why Middle Eastern Christians booed Israel (and Cruz). In this battle, Israel only cares for her own survival. The greatest threat is from Hezbollah(Iran).
That too, well put.
Hezbollah has been a thorn in Israel’s side. I still liken it to Assad, Khadaffy, and Mubarak though.
Sometimes the stability of what you already have, is better than jumping off into an unknown.
This new group to oust Hezbollah sounds great up front. Then you realize that when they entrench and become accustomed to the area, they could easily become a more formidable threat than Hezbollah. Then again, maybe not.
As you say, nothing is a given over there, because things change all the time. I still don’t see Libya, Egypt, or Syria as being better than they were.
This group will probably fall into that category too, as we learn more.
The fact that Jabhat al-Nusra is derived from al Qaeda is very problematic IMO. If they call in their buds, we’re talking a big threat there. al Qaeda has so many players in the region, Israel could quickly be surrounded and having to defend on all fronts.
It’s a concern for me. I don’t predict this as of this time, but it’s on my mind.
> Sometimes the stability of what you already have, is better than jumping off into an unknown.
Syrian stability, jumbo shrimp. Israel didn’t start the civil wars in Lebanon or Syria, so there was no jumping off. If anyone knows what kinds of dangers they face, it’s the Israelis.
? Israel could quickly be surrounded and having to defend on all fronts.
Yeah, and lawyers could start lying when their lips move. :’)
> Also, may be this is why Middle Eastern Christians booed Israel (and Cruz).
No, it’s because Middle Eastern Christians are largely Arabs, and like their Arab Muzzie cousins, they hate the Jews.
Those MEC’s were Hezbollah terrorist supporters, they get no sympathy from me
Hezbollah had been in the region for eight years since the last dust up with Israel. I’m not convinced that would have changed in short order. It could have. We both know that.
Are we convinced this new group will be peaceful with Israel for up to eight years? No. And being a break off from al Qaeda, that is concerning.
Israel does not always have to defend from all sides. Last time with Hezbollah, they pretty much only had to fight on the North.
With al Qaeda all over the region, it does cause concern for a much larger scale conflict with this new group.
It does for me. You see it different. Neither of us can be sure. I appreciate the alternate view. Take care.
“No, it’s because Middle Eastern Christians are largely Arabs, and like their Arab Muzzie cousins, they hate the Jews.”
Eastern Christians, not just Arab Christians, hate the Jews/Israel. Ask any Greek Orthodox or Russian Orthodox.
:’) Reminds me of that Tom Lehrer song.
agiprop
My goodness... I had to look it up...
thanks
I had forgotten to address the Syrian plane shoot down.
I suspect Israel did it to send an unmistakable message that it’s airspace was impenetrable to aircraft. It had probably developed a no-tolerance stance of this at any level.
Syria probably had no evil intent related to Israel, but it was a mistake to venture into Israeli airspace.
I suspect that won’t be happening again any time soon.
First of all, the last thing Syria wants to push right now is a fight with Israel.
I’ll will admit, Syria wouldn’t be the last nation to try to unify it’s base with military action against an enemy. Israel should be wary of a cornered leadership in Syria. Ya never know.
> Are we convinced this new group will be peaceful with Israel for up to eight years? No. And being a break off from al Qaeda, that is concerning.
Of that eight years you mention, the Syrian civil war comprises more than three, during which time Iran sent its proxies into that conflict, giving Israel a bit of a break.
The Lebanon frontier hasn’t been at peace since 1971 at the latest; there’s always harassing gunfire, and attempts at infiltration, and recently even Gaza-style tunneling is suspected.
Since 1985’s occupation of southern Lebanon by the Iranian thugs began, there have been short periods of hot war, and ALL were started by the Hizzies.
Meanwhile, Israel’s best (and probably only) option is to do what it can to see that the jihadists on all sides feed themselves into each other’s guns for the foreseeable. Given how long it’s been going on so far, nursing it along for another eight years looks feasible.
If they had their own militias, iow armed themselves, they’d have some kind of autonomy. As it is, they may just be shrinking cowards. Israel backed Lebanese Christians, who wound up having to flee from the Iranian proxies. The population of Lebanon remains 40 percent Christian (the largest sectarian group in Lebanon), but they’re politically divided, with Aoun and his followers allied with Hezbollah.
Assad must be aware, at some level, that if Israel had wanted him dead at any time in the past three years (and then some), he’d be dead. Zero knows it as well, which is why he and his cadre incited Hamas to start another war, and kill off some more Jews. Israel is really in a good position, even with the US. They should just have pants made in sizes for both genders, with “kiss here Obama” across the ass.
Large scale, showy terror attacks loom on Israel’s horizon
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.616892
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