1 posted on
09/19/2014 8:46:26 AM PDT by
scouter
To: scouter; neverdem; ProtectOurFreedom; Mother Abigail; EBH; vetvetdoug; Smokin' Joe; Global2010; ...
Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!
Bring Out Your Dead
We’re gonna need
a bigger cart!
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
2 posted on
09/19/2014 8:51:28 AM PDT by
null and void
(Only God Himself watches you more closely than the US government.)
To: scouter
I believe it will get pretty bad, especially for those in Africa
Kinda like Aids.
3 posted on
09/19/2014 8:54:38 AM PDT by
cuban leaf
(The US will not survive the obama presidency. The world may not either.)
To: scouter
4 posted on
09/19/2014 8:59:11 AM PDT by
11th_VA
To: scouter
you forget that one person coming from Liberia with unsymptomatic Ebola changes the US graph from 0 to 1 - at which point it could go exponential here too.
7 posted on
09/19/2014 9:15:46 AM PDT by
LurkingSince'98
(Ad Majoram Dei Gloriam = FOR THE GREATER GLORY OF GODs)
To: 2ndreconmarine; Fitzcarraldo; Covenantor; Mother Abigail; EBH; Dog Gone; ...
10 posted on
09/19/2014 9:18:34 AM PDT by
Smokin' Joe
(How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
To: scouter
Reminds me of global warming models.
15 posted on
09/19/2014 9:30:04 AM PDT by
Kirkwood
(Zombie Hunter)
To: scouter
The one glaring problem I see with your predictions is that you assume ebola will spread at the same rate in countries without proper sanitation and inadequate healthcare as it does in first world countries. Or do your numbers represent spread in Africa only?
19 posted on
09/19/2014 9:34:56 AM PDT by
Blood of Tyrants
(The cure has become worse than the disease. Support an end to the WOD now.)
To: scouter
That was a lot of work, thank you for sharing.
I have only one question did you or is there even a way to take in account situations in which because of the death rate in combination of the lack of and deterioration of health service allows for both the increase spread and even higher death rate because of the lack of support treatment?
31 posted on
09/19/2014 10:00:26 AM PDT by
Kartographer
("We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.")
To: scouter
Can you show the graphs on a semi-log scale too, if you get a chance?
To: scouter
More bad news: The natural rate of epidemic growth varies from country to country. If this model separated the countries, the numbers would be even worse - FAR worse!
45 posted on
09/19/2014 10:37:33 AM PDT by
Pollster1
("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
To: scouter
Scouter’s revised Ebola projection bookmark
60 posted on
09/19/2014 12:54:03 PM PDT by
Squeako
(The radicals are the wolves. The moderates are the wolves in sheep's clothing.)
To: Marie
Was this the thread?
86 posted on
09/30/2014 7:08:31 PM PDT by
Chgogal
(Obama "hung the SEALs out to dry, basically exposed them like a set of dog balls..." CMH)
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