“Does your model assume the same rate of transmission in the developed world as in Africa? That would seem unlikely.”
I have not heard a reasonable explanation why the “developed” world would have a lower rate of transmission. Better sanitation of course, but that sure doesn’t seem to prevent the transmission of the common cold.
Plus, in the developed world a sick person can travel to and from work (bus, train, elevator, etc.) and cover 20 miles in a day. A guy in some small village in Africa might travel 4 blocks in a week.
Our health care system is obviously better, but there are only a certain number of hospital beds. A quick search showed 10,000 in Minnesota. Maybe goes up to 50,000 with the National Guard, etc. setting up field hospitals. How many will still not be able to get treatment.
I would like to know what has stopped previous Ebola outbreaks in the past, when annual deaths were in the hundreds. I wonder if there is a certain number, or circumstance (such as the recent cases in large cities with international airports) where it becomes a “cat out of the bag” situation.
Prayers for those afflicted, and for those treating them.
Or how there's diseases that people catch usually only while in the hospital such as mrsa or c-dif. Clearly they can't sanitize enough to stop this so what makes ebola different?
Plus, in the developed world a sick person can travel to and from work (bus, train, elevator, etc.) and cover 20 miles in a day. A guy in some small village in Africa might travel 4 blocks in a week.
And how good are busses, trains, elevators, etc actually sanitized?
Our health care system is obviously better, but there are only a certain number of hospital beds. A quick search showed 10,000 in Minnesota. Maybe goes up to 50,000 with the National Guard, etc. setting up field hospitals. How many will still not be able to get treatment.
Plus first responders and doctors will be among the first to get sick and die.
We have a better health care system, and are able to keep patients quarantined while tests are run to determine if they do have Ebola (if they have the travel history to suggest such testing is worthwhile). In the hospital, we practice good infection control measures.
An even more important factor is that we do not have the customs that they have in Africa. When someone dies, it is not part of our funeral custom to stroke or lay hands on the dead body to say good-bye. Nor do families wash the bodies or give them enemas while preparing them for burial, all of which are customs in Africa. Many of the Ebola cases happened through touching dead bodies at funerals.
Ebola is transmitted exclusively by bodily fluids and not by air, like colds and the flu. In developed countries, Ebola would be less transmissible because of less crowding, much greater sanitation as a matter of routine, and the availability of modern medical care. Finally, in the developed countries, isolation measures would prevent the hospitals from being centers of Ebola infection as they commonly are in Africa.
In the past, IIRC the outbreaks were in small rather isolated villages, and it was easier to quarantine and contain the disease. Since there were less patients, the medical system wasn’t overwhelmed either.