Well, Pataki pulled it off against Andy’s dad, although it was in a year when all the stars were in alignment. And if the primary is close, instead of the expected landslide, things could get interesting.
New York is as far gone as California, and in some ways is worse.
Pataki was elected at about the same time as the last Republican governor of California, and the chances that NY will ever elect another one are the same as California, that is to say, zero.
I remind people all the time about what cost Mario the election.
The 1994 election was about a single issue.
Mario has been telling everyone that it was the death penalty that cost him the election. That Pataki supported it, and he did not.
That is a complete lie.
The death penalty does not affect people in their everyday lives. While I support the death penalty, and you may as well, does whether a particular offender is executed make a difference to you daily life? Unless you are a relative of either the victim or the offender, obviously not.
What cost Mario the election was his statement “the speed limit in NY will remain 55mph for as long as I am governor”. That turned all of those wealthy downstate democRATS who own houses on Lake George and elsewhere against him every time they drove up to their houses on the Thruway with the boot of Troop T at their throat. The 55 mph speed limit was vigorously enforced in NY for as long as Mario was governor. And that was the deciding factor in that election. They held their noses and voted for Pataki to get the speed limit back to 65 mph. Pataki won by a few points.
Today, there is no “daily life” issue to make those democRATS who voted for Pataki, turn away from Princess Andrew. Sure the economy sucks and the cities and small towns in upstate ans western NY look like the third world, but those downstate democRATS don’t care about us.