At first my impression was that we were looking at a repeat of a cycle that happens every couple decades and that all would be well soon. So I checked the record going back 60 years.
Seems that the current dislocation is truly unique, and that we've got another serious concern for our "why-the-economy-stinks" list. Sure, there's lots of items on the "why-the-economy's-just-fine" list but some how I keep having to staple more new pages onto the first one...
When I woke up today?
DJ Fut +33
S&P Fut +2.75
Conspiracy remains alive!
Maybe, they just don’t buy on days when the minutes are released???
;-)
This chart gives me mixed messages....
My first impression was: We suffered a major dislocation in the market due to the push by the idiot government to get EVERYONE in a home, whether they could afford it or not. We got WAY above the norm, corrected, and are now still well below the long term average. Which suggests that we will continue correcting toward the norm.
However, one can’t look at data like this without consider the affect of the demographic bubble that is the boomers. They are a LOT of people, moving to retirement, and downsizing to smaller homes and/or apartments or multi-family houses.
Plus, there seems to me to be an increase toward re-urbanization... with more and more people moving to apartments nearer city centers. So, maybe that continues to depress the single-family home numbers for awhile??
But...I think the first point is most likely the correct reading. Interesting that the numbers truly moved off norm in 2001, just a W was coming into office.