For me, the criminals’ behavior always gives it away.
Like we knew in our core that OJ was guilty, because he was running and suicidal.
Similarly, the VERY FIRST thing Putin does after the crash - even before the bodies are cold - is to blame Ukraine.
Classic behavior of someone who’s guilty. Maybe he didn’t specifically order it, but he provided the tools, and he knew his boys did it - he’s wearing this, and he knows that too.
I really think it was a mistake, but it was not an honest mistake. Putin’s been exacerbating tensions there from the very beginning of the crisis. He’s doing these things so he can reestablish the Russian Empire with himself as the grand new Czar. Other nations near his borders need to fear him and his use of proxies. He is ruthless and steadfastly pursuing his goals.