I agree with much of what he says, but total liquids do give a distorted view to what most folks are interested in, transportation fuel. Additional production of ethane and propane help the economy, but they don't make a difference in filling up the gasoline tank in my truck.
Both excerpted for Forbes content:
Peak Oil 1: What Is Peak Oil?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2014/06/19/peak-oil-1-what-is-peak-oil/
6/19/2014
M. King Hubbert wrote a paper in 1956 in which he noted that no particular pattern could be observed in energy production, but that for US oil, a bell curve seemed reasonably accurate, so he applied it to predict US production would peak between 1965 and 1970. When Nixon ended oil import quotas in 1970, US oil prices and drilling dropped, and production peaked in 1971, which convinced Hubbert (and his many disciples) that the bell curve was ‘scientific’ and valid. His other predictions fared much less well, but have tended to be overlooked.
In 1989, Colin Campbell revived the method, arguing that conventional oil production had peaked that year. Subsequently, he joined with Jean Laherrere to produce a series of consulting reports and then articles, making various claims for their ability to accurately estimate recoverable resources and production patterns. These proved to be incorrect, and they abandoned most of their early arguments, after initially deriding critics, like me, as not being ‘scientific’.
Their work became eclipsed by others, particularly in the US, who basically argued that production had (or soon would) peak because of difficulties in raising production. Given high prices, some argued that their argument were validated, even to the point of arguing that the loss of supply due to the 2003 Iraq war or the 2011 Libyan uprising were not very relevant.
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Peak Oil 2: The True Believers
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2014/06/25/peak-oil-2-the-true-believers/
6/25/2014
But this argument gradually faded, as it became clear that most petroleum geologists did not support the concept.
Indeed, most of the writing has come from generalists, or at least people unfamiliar with the field. Granted some, like Walter Youngquist, Richard Duncan and Robert Hirsch are petroleum geologists or engineers, and Kenneth Deffeyes is a professor emeritus of geology at Princeton. But others, such as David Goodstein (physicist) and Richard Heinberg (writer) have not particular expertise regarding oil. And don’t get me started on Michael Ruppert, the retired police officer.
Crucially, most geologists are not familiar with statistical modeling, which has been the primary method supporting claims of an imminent peak (not science). Few if any are familiar with supply modeling history or theory, and they often make technical mistakes as a result. Their embrace of the Hubbert curve as a scientific model has proven an embarrassment, especially since novices still see older publications and don’t realize it has been refuted.
And Matthew Simmons book, “Twilight in the Desert” about Saudi oil was full of technical mistakes, yet was enthusiastically embraced by the peak oil community.
Set the price at $500/bbl, and I guarantee you production will increase.
I wonder when the demand side will drop. I recently read about the Koreans finally getting solid oxide fuel cells about ready for the transportation market. It would allow commercial vehicles to drop fuel consumption about 50% and for personal transportation probably around 75%.
Exciting times.
Oil and other hydrocarbon products are commodities that are bought and sold on the world market for prices based on US dollars. If the dollar fluctuates in value, so will the price of all commodities that are bought and sold in US dollars. A US refiner pays just as much for a barrel of oil as a Chinese refiner does. Countries with nationalized oil production and refining assets don’t pay the going world rate, it’s set by government policy. Price is also set by recovery costs, meaning how much money and energy is required to get those hydrocarbons out of the ground. Fracking and oil sands can’t compete at less than $80.00 a barrel, until technology can drive that price down, and refiners can utilize all of a feedstock to make one finished product. If you really wanted to make a profit, get the feds to allow the export of crude oil, and let the domestic market come up to the world level for fuel prices.
The journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change has carried several articles pointing out the flaws of this approach to forecasting the limit of a growth curve using data from the lower half. The results can be badly misleading, and the method is not recommended for any forecasting use. (full disclosure: I'm on the editorial board of that journal).