Posted on 06/12/2014 7:27:38 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
How bad has the situation in Iraq become? The city of Kirkuk has long been a point of contention between the Kurds and the Iraqi government. Saddam Hussein expelled the Kurds from the city, and ever since the Kurds have laid claim to it — and its oil resources. The new government in Iraq similarly refused to cede the territory to the Kurds, and for the same reason.
Now they’ve run away from Kirkuk, and the Kurds have it again by default as the Iraqi army collapses:
Iraqi Kurdish forces say they have taken full control of the northern oil city of Kirkuk as the army flees before an Islamist offensive nearby.
“The whole of Kirkuk has fallen into the hands of peshmerga,” Kurdish spokesman Jabbar Yawar told Reuters. “No Iraq army remains in Kirkuk now.”
Kurdish fighters are seen as a bulwark against Sunni Muslim insurgents. …
Under Saddam Hussein’s programme of “Arabisation”, Kurds were driven from Kirkuk and replaced with settlers from the south, and the Iraqi government continues to assert control over nearby oilfields, with the backing from the local Turkmen community.
That won’t last long now, as the Iraqis still fiddle while Anbar and Nineveh burn. The parliament has postponed a vote on Nouri al-Maliki’s declaration of emergency, which delays any cohesive response. They can’t delay for much longer before ISIS comes knocking on their doors in Baghdad:
Insurgents inspired by al-Qaeda rapidly pressed toward Baghdad on Wednesday, confronting little resistance from Iraq’s collapsing security forces and expanding an arc of control that now includes a wide swath of the country.
By nightfall, the militants had reached the flash-point city of Samarra, just 70 miles outside Baghdad, after having first seized Tikrit, Saddam Hussein’s home town, and other cities while pressing southward from Mosul. …
It appeared that the militants were facing more robust resistance as they moved south, where Iraq’s Shiites have a stronger presence. But several experts said it would be wrong to assume that heavily fortified Baghdad, with its large Shiite population and concentration of elite forces, could easily fend off an ISIS attack.
On Thursday, the militant group vowed to march on to Baghdad . A spokesman for the Islamic State of Iran and the Levant says the group has old scores to settle with the Shiite-led government in Baghdad, the Associated Press reported.
The spokesman, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, also threatened that ISIL fighters will take the southern Iraqi Shiite cities of Karbala and Najaf, which hold two of the holiest shrines for Shiite Muslims. The statement, which could not be independently verified, came in an audio posting Thursday on militant Web sites commonly used by the group, the AP said.
The Peshmerga will hold off ISIS in the north, at least for a while. The BBC notes that ISIS has bypassed the Kurdish areas for fear of the well-seasoned Peshmerga, who aren’t going to run in the face of an inferior force of Sunni terrorists. The ISIS move toward the Shi’ite cities might end up backfiring, though, as it will encourage Iran to come to Maliki’s rescue and turn all of Iraq into a battlefield. In that scenario, the US will lose all influence and power in Iraq, and perhaps throughout the entire region as the other states start cutting deals with Tehran or lining up against it in the ground war.
This is turning into a rout, and Iraq is getting dismembered as we watch. Unless the West intervenes in a big way soon, it won’t be long before we have to start evacuating from that large, expensive US embassy — and we get another iconic image of the last chopper to leave Saigon, er, Baghdad.
Massive proxy civil war coming to Iraq.
Iran will enter on behalf of the shiites. Saudi will have its faction of shiites, while Turkey will enter in the North against the Kurds.
If (when?) ISIS takes Baghdad this will be moot.
And how does ISIS have enough people to hold these towns? Was there no sign of possible Iraqi Army collapse before this? Were they Sunnis or Shiites? Are the Shiites just incapable of performing as an Army?
Trouble then, as now, is the various Kurdish factions couldn't agree on anything. It was like herding cats, sort of like today's GOP.
The Kurds need to just declare independence. They have always been good allies and they don’t deserve to be shackled to the mess Obama is leaving.
Gee, this is gonna be fun. Three more years of obama. The world will not survive.
I’d rather see the US aid the Peshmerga, to help them hold the north, than waste money by giving it to the incompetent government in Baghdad.
Well done, Obama. Well done.
If being in the army means nothing more than a good paycheck then you will not stand and fight.
I don't know about that. Turkey certainly has no love for the Kurds but having seen the mess in Syria they may be looking at them as the lesser of two evils.
“The Kurds....have always been good allies and they don’t deserve to be shackled to the mess Obama is leaving.”
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He’s not only “leaving” the mess, HE and his minions created it.
As much as it pains me to say this, I think Biden may have stumbled onto something when he suggested a three-state (Kurd-Sunni-Shiite) solution for Iraq.
By now, each entity would have its own military and state apparatus. The shiite-dominated hot mess that is Iraq is failing fast.
The Sand Wars. The wind blows and it all starts over again.
Isn’t that interesting —
They list Mosul as falling to ISIS but isn’t Mosul a Kurdish city and why would the Kurds let it fall to them.
I would hope that a three-state solution would work, but wait for the ubiquitous “but”...
...given the religious ideology of these sects of Islam, they would still be at each other’s throats (literally), as they demand the “other sect(s)” convert or die in order to establish their version of a “true” Islamic Caliphate.
As a neophyte amateur, probably I don’t know enough and am wrong.
Iraq should be broken up.
I have been saying that for years.
Good. It was a huge mistake to not break up Iraq into three separate countries.
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