Driverless cars, or driverless trucks, on any type of large scale.....are not going to happen.
There a large differences between the world of Google (computers, software, internet) and the world of automobiles.
Cars have had computers for a very long time...and they hardly ever fail. This is because the automotive industry (and the automotive consumer) have a very different expectation of their car’s reliability, vs their web browser’s. My Android phone locks up a few times a month...I take the battery out and restart. If my car did this - time for a new car.
Companies like Google will NEVER meet an automotive consumer’s expectation. Nor will Tesla, which has described their product as more software than car. To an IT guy, they think that’s a good thing to boast about. To most of us, it most certainly is not.
Now on to the concept of the driverless car. It uses LIDAR. I am very familiar with LIDAR, and use it at work...so I am no luddite. I am also aware of how much LIDAR costs...a lot. Google claims $70k...which I think is a lowball estimate. Mobile LIDAR starts at $250k. And then there are laser rangefinders and of course, software. And there’s got to be a large computer on board - LIDAR creates huge files, that bog down conventional computers.
So its expensive. Is it effective? I’d love to see how it reacts to a blowout on the interstate, an engine fire, seized brake, etc. I suspect serious shortcomings.
Trucking industry? It boggles my mind to contemplate how a driverless truck could enter a factory, weigh in, find the right spot to dock, open its own doors or take its own tarp off, weigh out, inspect itself for proper lights and tires, and refuel itself, before getting back on the road.
Or what about a truck with multiple deliveries...who installs load locks...who keeps client #1 from pilfering some of client #2’s delivery?
I’m sure a system that overcomes all of these problems is technically possible...but not reasonably cost effective at all.
Actually they already ARE happening. Strip mining is now done almost entirely by automated vehicles. And we have cars that park themselves, and cars that avoid collisions for you. The only thing delaying self driving cars in mass production now is us, we still aren’t willing to admit the world we already live in.