Posted on 05/23/2014 5:25:27 PM PDT by Kaslin
Two years ago, there was a flurry of excitement because some guy named Rex Nutting crunched annual budget numbers and concluded that Barack Obama was the most fiscally conservative President since at least 1980.
I looked at the data and found a few mistakes, such as a failure to adjust the numbers for inflation, but Nutting’s overall premise was reasonably accurate.
As you can see from the tables I prepared back in 2012, 
Obama was the third most frugal President based on the growth of total inflation-adjusted spending.
And he was in first place 
if you looked at primary spending, which is total spending after removing net interest payments (a reasonable step since Presidents can’t really be blamed for interest payments on the debt accrued by their predecessors).
So does this mean Obama is a closet conservative, asmy old – but misguided – buddy Bruce Bartlett asserted?
Not exactly. A few days after that post, I did some more calculations and explained that Obama was the undeserved beneficiary of the quirky way that bailouts and related items are measured in the budget.
It turns out that Obama supposed frugality is largely the result of how TARP is measured in the federal budget. To put it simply, TARP pushed spending up in Bush’s final fiscal year (FY2009, which began October 1, 2008) and then repayments from the banks (which count as “negative spending”) artificially reduced spending in subsequent years.
So I removed TARP, deposit insurance, and other bailout-related items, on the assumption that such one-time costs distort the real record of various Administrations.
And that left me with a new set of numbers, based on primary spending minus bailouts. And on this basis, Obama’s record is not exactly praiseworthy.
Instead of being the most frugal President, he suddenly dropped way down in the rankings, beating only Lyndon Baines Johnson.
Which explains why I accused him in 2012 of being a big spender – just like his predecessor.
But the analysis I did two years ago was based on Obama’s record for his first three fiscal years.
So I updated the numbers last yearand looked at Obama’s record over his first four years. And it turns out that Obama did much better if you look at the average annual growth of primary spending minus bailouts. Instead of being near the bottom, he was in the middle of the pack.
Did this mean Obama moved to the right?
That’s a judgement call. For what it’s worth, I suspect that Obama’s ideology didn’t change and the better numbers were the result of the Tea Party and sequestration.
But I don’t care who gets credit. I’m just happy that spending didn’t grow as fast.
I’m giving all this background because I’ve finally cranked the most-recent numbers. And if we look at overall average spending growth for Obama’s first five years and compare that number to average spending growth for other Presidents, he is the most frugal. Adjusted for inflation, the budget hasn’t grown at all. That’s a very admirable outcome.
But what about primary spending? By that measure, we have even better results. 
There’s actually been a slight downward trend in the fiscal burden of government during the Obama years.
This doesn’t necessarily mean, to be sure, that Obama deserves credit. Maybe the recent spending restraint in Washington is because of what’s happened in Congress.
I’ve repeatedly argued, for instance, that sequestration was a great victory over the special interests. And Obama vociferously opposed those automatic budget cuts, even to the point of making himself a laughingstock.
But don’t forget that TARP-type expenses can mask important underlying trends. So now let’s look at the numbers that I think are most illuminating.
Here’s the data for average inflation-adjusted growth of primary spending minus bailouts.
As you can see, Obama no longer is in first place. But he’s jumped to third place, which puts him ahead of every Republican other than Reagan. Given that all those other GOPers were statists, that’s not saying much, but it does highlight that party labels don’t necessarily mean much.
My Republican friends are probably getting irritated, so I’ll share one last set of numbers that may make them happy.
I cranked the numbers for average spending growth, but subtracted interest payments, bailouts, and defense outlays. What’s left is domestic spending, and here are the rankings based on those numbers.
Reagan easily did the best job of restraining overall domestic discretionary and entitlement outlays. Bill Clinton came in second place, showing that Democrats can preside overreasonably good results. And Richard Nixon came in last place, showing that Republicans can preside over horrible numbers.
Obama, meanwhile, winds up in the middle of the pack. Which is probably very disappointing for the President since he wanted to be a transformational figure who pushed the nation to the left, in the same way that Reagan was a transformational figure who pushed the nation to the right.
Instead, Obama’s only two legacies are a failed healthcare plan and a tongue-in-cheek award for being a great recruiter for the cause of libertarianism.
P.S. Historical numbers sometimes change slightly because the government’s data folks massage and re-measure both inflation and spending. Though I confess I’m not sure why the 2013 calculation for Nixon’s primary spending minus bailouts is somewhat different from the 2012 and 2014 numbers. Perhaps I screwed up when copying some of the numbers, which has been known to happen. But since Nixon’s performance isn’t the focus of this post, I’m not going to lose any sleep about the discrepancy.
Can you say sequester?
I still find this hard to believe because of the stimulus plan that was put in place Obama's first year and then baked into the budget in subsequent years.
Also Bush kept the war on terror costs separate from the budget with the expectation that they would go away when the war was over. Obama merged them into the budget so that they could keep spending at that level unquestioned.
Obama has cost America an incredible amount in the form of lost wealth.
crunched budget numbers ? Obama has only had like 1 budget so far
Absurd, the deficit has grown to nearly a trillion every year. This article is a joke.
the mathematica; priciple is simple: redistribution is not spending
Of course it is... But that won't stop the leftists from using it as a bludgeon in any arguments about how wonderful their messiah has been for the USA.
Bush started with the national debt at $5.9 trillion and end it at $10.7 trillion.
Obama started with that $10.7 trillion and is currently around $17.5 trillion.
In 2012 the national debt exceeded 100% of the US GDP.
Obama has been the biggest spender in history. The fact that you can make a case for him being a fiscal conservative speaks ill of statisticians.
budget ? what budget ?
And they say “Figures don’t lie.”.
Whoever said that must have been a liar.
That was the first question that popped into my mind when I read this obvious absurdity: "Did they blame TARP on Bush?" (not that he was faultless in it, not at all). Obviously no POTUS that runs trillion dollar deficits could possibly be even one of the most frugal. The other thing they should correct for is GDP. If GDP increases 6%, and spending is up 2%, that's actually less damning than if GDP is DOWN 1% yet spending is up 1.5%.
You know what they say....Liars, DAMN liars, and statisticians!
Note the famous phrase concerning statistics:
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
BULLSHIT.
He's DOUBLED the National Debt by himself. Tell me again how "frugal" the hnic is.
Where'd you get those figures? I had seen the national debt at 7.2T when Bush took office and around 9.5T when he left. (Don't remember where I saw that...)
Yikes! Looking at those tables, Clinton was the most financially conservative .... actually drove down spending as a % of GDP (thanks to a truly Conservative Congress, at least at the time)
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