The vast bulk of production problems in California is political, not technical. With “Moonbeam” Brown running the state, and “Bat$#!t” Obama running the country, the best estimate of oil production California is ZERO.
What the author is implying and it is a fair assertion is that “estimates” are exactly that.
Now, my problem with the author is he seems almost celebratory that the Monterrey formation isn’t as big as it was estimated to be...but anyone with a brain puts an over/under on an estimate. And in another few years that formation could be found to be larger than they ever dreamed.
As the empirical data grows so does the certainty.