What the author is implying and it is a fair assertion is that “estimates” are exactly that.
Now, my problem with the author is he seems almost celebratory that the Monterrey formation isn’t as big as it was estimated to be...but anyone with a brain puts an over/under on an estimate. And in another few years that formation could be found to be larger than they ever dreamed.
As the empirical data grows so does the certainty.
I agree that US gov and the greenies want to downplay potential and kill fracking. That said, we should leave open the possibility that fracking in flat-lying sedimentary geological formations in the center of the continent may be hugely more productive than the same technology applied to the melange of rocks scraped from the ocean floor and volcanic island arcs pushed onto the continental margin. And the reports refers to the possibility that oil within this formation may have already migrated—meaning we may have sucked some of it up already drilling in the lower Cental Valley.
Apparently, many are convinced it is there, but sorting out the rest will take some doing.
Even the Bakken has its hotspots where production is better and other areas where is is less, before it peters out completely near the edges of the formation (it does not outcrop anywhere and is only in the subsurface). I have only worked two out of roughly 200 wells in the Bakken and Three Forks which were non-productive, and they were where we were looking for the limits. We found them.
Among the other wells, though, IPs ranged from 3000 BOPE to 250 BOPE, depending on where in the basin we drilled.
Escuse me, his name is "Tina!"
Now Thackney, that website that's linked has a name that makes me a little suspicious before I even go there to check it all out. Do you know this author or the blog she's writing for or any of there bona fides???