See post 170. Until you have worked in politics behind the Zion curtain, you don’t know squat about it.
Mia Love is a black, Mormon woman, and will face a white, Mormon male. So I guess you’re calling it for Owens right now? Please come back in November on election night to see how you did.
Funny, Love faced white, Mormon males in the state convention in both 2012 and 2014, and won over 60% of the vote each time, in each case deep behind the wall of Zion. And in the 2012 general election, 49% of voters cast their votes for the black, Mormon woman over the white, Mormon male, and Love came within 0.3% of defeating the 6-term incumbent with the magical name. So perhaps your formula is correct for some Mormon voters, but clearly not most.