Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The GOP’s Electoral Future: Will it really become a permanent minority?
National Review ^ | 04/22/2014 | Michael Barone

Posted on 04/22/2014 7:25:34 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Have the Republicans become the white man’s party? Are the depth and bitterness of Republicans’ opposition to Barack Obama and his administration the product of racism?

Those are questions you hear in the clash of political argument, and you will hear plenty of answers in the affirmative if you click onto MSNBC or Salon.com with any regularity.

You can find a more nuanced and thoughtful analysis in Jonathan Chait’s recent New York magazine article, “The Color of His Presidency.”

Chait, a liberal, starts off by noting that the post-racial America that Obama seemed to promise in his 2004 national convention speech and his 2008 campaign has not come into being.

On the contrary, “Race, always the deepest and most volatile fault line in American history,” he writes, “has now become the primal grievance in our politics, the source of a narrative of persecution each side uses to make sense of the world.”

Many liberals see racism in every criticism of the Obama presidency, even though, as Chait points out, Bill Clinton was met with similar and in some cases more strident opposition.

Conservatives, he argues, “dwell in a paranoia of their own, in which racism is used as a cudgel to delegitimize their core beliefs.” Understandably so, given his description of liberals’ “paranoia of a white racism.”

Chait defends liberals by arguing that the debates on big government were inevitably produced by the Obama agenda and “there is no separating this discussion from one’s sympathies or prejudices toward, and identification with, black America.”

But he also admits that “advocating tax cuts is not in any meaningful sense racist.” And he seems to ignore the argument that policies that directed large sums of money disproportionately at blacks — like the welfare programs from the 1970s to the 1990s, which the Obama administration is trying to partially resurrect — harm more than benefit their intended beneficiaries.

This is, after all, what House budget chairman Paul Ryan was getting at when he lamented “a culture, in our inner cities in particular, of men not working.” The fact that Obama has made similar arguments didn’t prevent Ryan from being excoriated as racist by some liberals.

On balance, Chait absolves Republicans (and Democrats) of the charge of racism. But he is one of many analysts, including some conservatives, who have warned Republicans of the danger of becoming a party made up almost exclusively of white people.

That puts them at risk, the argument goes, of becoming a permanent minority in a nation with increasing percentages of Hispanics and Asians and with blacks voting almost unanimously for Democrats.

There’s obviously some peril there. Mitt Romney won 59 percent of white votes in 2012, the same as George H. W. Bush in 1988. But with a smaller non-white electorate, Bush won 53 percent of the total popular vote to Romney’s 47 percent.

History tells us that Republican presidential candidates have never won more than Romney’s 59 percent of the white vote except in 1972 and 1984, when incumbent presidents were reelected in landslides.

But history also tells us that until the 1940s (except during Reconstruction), whites constituted nearly 100 percent of the electorate. Southern blacks weren’t allowed to vote, and there were few Hispanics or Asians.

The relevant electoral divisions in the past were between groups of whites — southerners and northerners, Catholics and Protestants, New England Yankees and Jacksonian frontiersmen.

The parties competed by maximizing solidarity among favorable demographic or regional minorities, while quietly seeking inroads among other groups.

Awareness of minority status tends to produce greater partisan solidarity. Extreme examples include Irish for 120 years after the potato famine, white southerners for 90 years after the Civil War, and blacks since 1964.

That may be happening again. Political scientist Larry Bartels points to research that shows that when Independent voters in the West were asked “if they had heard that California had become a majority-minority state,” they were more likely to vote Republican by a sizable 11 points.

These days, voters nationally are being told, by triumphant liberals and defensive conservatives, that America is headed toward becoming a majority-minority nation. So whites may become more Republican than ever, not because of racism, but because of the dynamics of competitive party politics.

Republicans still face challenges among non-whites. But Democrats may face similar challenges among whites, and charges of racism won’t help.

— Michael Barone is senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; gop; republicans
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-53 next last
To: brownsfan

I sincerely apologize if I appeared to scold you.

I suppose I should have lightened up my language just a bit. However China is growing by leaps and bounds.

We (both of our parties) have completely in bed with Communist China.

China is a closed, China-first nation.

Eventually they will pass America. Then what?

One of our parties needs to stand up, and say enough. Enough selling America to this or that interest.

We need a party to be for AMERICA.

I do not mean that to scold anyone. I am just saying we need much, much more pro-Americanism.

That means AMERICAN.

Not pro-Chinese. Not pro-European. Not pro-Hispanic, pro-African, nor even pro-Australian.

We just need to return to pro-Americanism.

How long has it been?

Someone needs to start it. Now.

I certainly hope, it is the GOP.


21 posted on 04/22/2014 7:48:11 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: brownsfan

You got it. Not today or tomorrow, but down the road.


22 posted on 04/22/2014 7:48:40 AM PDT by Biggirl (“Go, do not be afraid, and serve”-Pope Francis)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Biggirl

“I see more and more of my predictions coming true.”

I don’t know about you... but I was here during the “free traitor” period. I was frequently asked to go back to the DU. I said, keep it up, keep supporting the export of our means of production and we’ll end up with Marxists in charge.


23 posted on 04/22/2014 7:49:16 AM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: pepsionice

“So you end up with an imbalance. Maybe the political wizards and junkies think it’d be something otherwise, but look over the past decade. Urban areas got the vote out for Democrats....rural areas got the vote out for Republicans.”

What needs to change is a statewide method for declaring the winner of the states electoral votes without changing the electoral college. I propose going to a county by county point system. You win a county, you get a point. Most points win the electoral vote. This would be for senators, governors and president. Congress would still be done the same way.

It takes population centers out of the equation, where a Philadelphia can decide an election for the entire state. It is also a firewall for disenfranchisement and fraud in that if a county has 150% of the vote, it only gets one point.

It takes the rats arguments off the table as there would be no way to defend their position without accepting that they are responsible for voter fraud and disenfranchisement.


24 posted on 04/22/2014 7:49:53 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz ("Heck of a reset there, Hillary")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: skeeter
......change in the current trend needs to occur in the hearts of non-whites. ....

Ghetto culture is the new normal. White people now have a very high illegitimacy rate .... about 35%. Many enjoy EBT, Section 8, Free Phones, Health Care,cash payments, fake disability payments, years of unemployment, high drop-out rates, drug addiction, etc. E.G., I am personally acquainted with 5 families ..... 15 years ago you would have identified them as "good solid stock"..... in which the grandparents now care for illegitimate children, and in 2 cases, more than 1 by different fathers.

The government has created an entirely new white underclass ... or at least added huge numbers to it. Check out my favorite cultural barometer ... the parking lot at your Wal-Mart. The tattooed fatties even dress like residents of some TV 'hood.

With some sophisticated fraud, their vote is worth a lot more than mine ... or yours. Eventually, "they": .... black or white ... will actually outnumber real people.

25 posted on 04/22/2014 7:50:33 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk ( Our POTUS is a foreign gay Muslim disbarred lawyer. What could possibly go wrong?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Minorities are increasing in numbers and tend to vote democrat. Whites are decreasing, but there is one more really big reason pubbies may become a permanent minority party.

The overall number of folks on the gov’t dole are growing greatly and do tend to vote for the hand that feeds them.


26 posted on 04/22/2014 7:52:39 AM PDT by umgud
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Strong property and civil rights, limited government, low taxes, pro-business, pro-America, Pro-racial equality (vs. manufactured parity). Talk to Americans like adults, not children, serfs, or heathens in need of conversion.

That’s the winning platform that will draw from the pool of (guess) 80% of American’s who don’t vote based on single issue litmus tests.


27 posted on 04/22/2014 7:54:43 AM PDT by Jack of all Trades (Hold your face to the light, even though for the moment you do not see.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: pepsionice
For those who haven’t figured this out...

It's a little odd that this commonsense analysis, with which I agree, hasn't been stated very often here on FR, at least in my hearing.

Along similar lines, I notice that a handful of States are supporting FR disproportionately with the rest of the States.
28 posted on 04/22/2014 7:54:55 AM PDT by Resettozero
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Cringing Negativism Network

“We just need to return to pro-Americanism.”

The left has taken control of the media, and the educational system. Simply displays of patriotism now are often punished, called racist, or offensive.

The political class is in it for themselves, exclusively. There are rare exceptions, but for the most part, the political class would vote with Satan if it meant more money in their coffers. They just don’t care about America, or Americans.

I see no relief. The crushing debt will grow, and at some point, China won’t need us as much as they do now. When that happens, they will do the logical thing. Pull the rug out from under a competitor. And that will be the fall of America.


29 posted on 04/22/2014 7:55:09 AM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind; All
only if the GOP/e gets their way ("immigration reform")
the GOPers; has been "whithering" since '94 thru '13,
(b/c motor voter fraud) and the whole party suffers.

30 posted on 04/22/2014 7:55:20 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (The end move in politics is always to pick up a gun..0'Bathhouse/"Rustler" Reid? ;-)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

What makes everyone think that these “GOVERNMENT FREEBIES” are reserved for only the minority population? Everyone wants to be on the “FREE BIE” list. And unless the moral fiber of this country is changed and done very quickly, we will all be down that road to government plantation.


31 posted on 04/22/2014 7:56:22 AM PDT by gingerbread
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: brownsfan

I agree 100%.

If we wait.

That is what I am saying. We need to change our approach.

America needs to bring back American manufacturing.

Now. GOP needs to be for America.

America. I’m sorry but it’s that simple. Someone needs to turn around, and start once again looking out for America’s interests.

America’s jobs.

America’s people.


32 posted on 04/22/2014 7:58:41 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Until NR re-hires John Derbyshire, they’re just blowing smoke on race.


33 posted on 04/22/2014 8:00:56 AM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: all armed conservatives)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Night Hides Not

GOPe is becoming a minority party because they’re at war with their base: Tea Partiers and evangelicals. It’s a simple as that.

That was my thought too, if the GOPe turns it’s back
on it’s base, it deserves to be a minority party.
If they would instead support their base their strength
would be awesome and the attractiveness of their ideals
would only generate more enthusiasm.


34 posted on 04/22/2014 8:04:04 AM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Cringing Negativism Network

“America’s jobs.

America’s people.”

And I agree with you. But, I don’t see a way to motivate the political class to be for America. The left has their hands on the levers of power, and will punish anyone who is boldly, openly for America.

We have become the minority, with no access to power.


35 posted on 04/22/2014 8:08:06 AM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: brownsfan

(Tea Party)

The Tea Party needs to strongly come out for American businesses.

That is where the hope lies.

Tea Party.

If they stand up.


36 posted on 04/22/2014 8:10:19 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

This is an article in a libtard mag, but a libtard author, quoting other libtard TV stations, about what THEY think is wronk with the GOP party...

Why do we care what they think?


37 posted on 04/22/2014 8:14:01 AM PDT by Mr. K (If you like your constitution, you can keep it...Period. PALIN/CRUZ 2016)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Will GOP become a permanent minority? If Chinless and Bonehead have their way, yes.


38 posted on 04/22/2014 8:18:45 AM PDT by Cyber Liberty (H.L. Mencken: "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The RINOs are becoming a permanent minority, but that’s a different issue.


39 posted on 04/22/2014 8:50:48 AM PDT by Flame Retardant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kenny Bunk

I agree. But I’m addressing the “GOP is a white party” meme.


40 posted on 04/22/2014 9:00:52 AM PDT by skeeter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-53 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson