RAND: Only One-Third Of Obamacare Exchange Sign-Ups Were From The Previously Uninsured

Forbes ^ | March 31, 2014 | By Avik Roy

[Jim Robinson]

Today is March 31, 2014: in theory, the last day you can sign up for coverage under the subsidized Obamacare insurance exchanges. If you’ve been a regular reader of this space, you know that the numbers routinely paraded by the Obama administration regarding Obamacare website sign-ups don’t tell us much about the actual number of uninsured individuals who have gained coverage. A new study from the RAND Corporation indicates that only one-third of exchange sign-ups were previously uninsured.

The RAND study hasn’t yet been published, but its contents were made available to Noam Levey of the Los Angeles Times. RAND also estimates that 9 million individuals have purchased health plans directly from insurers, outside of the exchanges, but that “the vast majority of these people were previously insured.”

The RAND report appears to corroborate the work of other surveys. Earlier this month, McKinsey reported that 27 percent of those signing up for coverage on the individual market were previously uninsured.

Around 1/4 of exchange enrollees were previously uninsured

One important finding of the McKinsey survey was that the proportion of those who had formally enrolled in coverage, by paying their first month’s premium, was considerably lower among the previously uninsured, relative to the previously insured. 86 percent of those who were previously insured who had “selected a marketplace plan” on the exchanges had paid, whereas only 53 percent of the previously uninsured had.

[Kickass Conservative]

Let me guess, April Fools!

[Jim from C-Town]

The real question is RETENTION RATES. To get the first payment on any insurance policy is the EASY ONE. It is the second, third, and especially the tenth one once the idea of paying something for nothing actually hits home.

I suspect that the drop off rate in the first year for all previously uninsured people on the exchange will be close to 100%. They couldn’t be bothered to afford insurance before, they won’t be bothered to afford it now.

After all, insurance is the only thing you pay fort that you hope to God you never have to use.

[Paul R.]

I wonder how many people went on the exchanges hating it, but with no other choice because ObamaCare has driven premiums so high. And how many had lost insurance but delayed getting new insurance hoping that somehow this pile of crap would be thrown out, but in the end realized the cavalry wasn’t coming. So now, these people and those who simply didn’t want insurance but were forced into it are part of the “success” of ObamaCare, even though they detest it.

I’d also like to see charts of enrollees’ income vs. the subsidies they get, and how many enrollees are getting subsidies of over 70%, and how many are getting over 50%. I would not be at all surprised if 90% of enrollees are getting at least a 50% subsidy. Some of those people are no doubt the gov’t teat-suckers, but I’ll bet a lot are decent, hard working people, some of whom don’t realize that the $$ are swindled from them in the first place, and some do realize it, but figure this how they get it back...

[xzins]

This is ethically criminal behavior on the part of the politicians determined to keep important information from being known.

[randita]

They couldn’t be bothered to afford insurance before, they won’t be bothered to afford it now.

The line we were fed was that previously uninsured people would have gotten insurance if 1) it was affordable and/or 2) pre-existing conditions were covered.

Obamacare was supposed to fix all that, but we knew all along that 1) it would NOT be affordable and 2) pre-existing conditions might be covered, but you can't keep your doctor and OOP costs (deductibles, drugs, tests, etc.) are exhorbitant.

So what's the incentive for the previously uninsured now get insurance?

In any case, millions more have been added to Medicaid and millions are getting taxpayer subsidies to purchase insurance. That equates to millions more reliably Rat voters. Goal accomplished.

[Scoutmaster]

Yes, it is.

[Grampa Dave]

“So what’s the incentive for the previously uninsured now ‘to’ get insurance?”

Still zero.

My wife was the head office RN in a busy FP office. She labeled the 20-50 year old group as the bullet proof patients. With the exception of an accident or inherited poor protoplasm, they didn’t need insurance with the exception of pregnancies.

Our siblings and all of our children, now in their mid to late 40’s only needed a doctor for easy treatable and short term acute medical problems. These children, now adults in their 40’s realized this in their twenties and went on a cash basis for their health costs. Some still are. Those in business for themselves had some type of casualty insurance.

They refused to get the useless and expensive yearly checkups, aka physicals and all of the expensive and useless lab tests involved with yearly physicals.

Now, most will pay the penalty rather than enroll in Obama care. Some may enroll in the basic Obama Care policy as their new casualty insurance. With the high deductibles, they will continue being on a cash basis for most if not all of their medical care. The Obozo Scare policy after the high deductibles will pay for most serious hospital visits.

To answer your excellent question, there is Zero reason for these healthy people to enroll in Obozo Scare.

[Osage Orange]

Ha!!...Yep!!