Posted on 03/26/2014 3:07:15 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Were more than 20 months from the first Republican presidential primary, and the pool of candidates is inchoate. Pollsters are asking voters about 10 candidates, none of whom registers higher than 20 percent support in early state or national surveys. Its the most divided GOP field at this point in the cycle since the parties reformed the nomination process in the 1970s.
But on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has the field pretty much to herself, and theres little sign that party leaders are encouraging others to run (as they did in 2008). Despite the fact that she hasnt declared her intention to run yet, shes polling at 60 to 70 percent the strongest position for any non-incumbent in the modern era and 30 points higher than at this point in the 2008 cycle.
Early polls often dont foretell the eventual margins of the primaries, something that shouldnt be surprising. But what if Clinton in fact wins the Democratic nomination in a landslide, while the Republican nominee does so only after a long and close race? As Karen Tumulty and Robert Costa reported in The Washington Post, GOP elders believe that scenario would lead to problems for their eventual candidate. Are they right? Could a Democratic sweep and a drawn-out Republican contest offer insight into the outcome of the general election?
History suggests possibly. Theres been a strong correlation between the margin of victory in the primaries and the later margin in the general election. But correlation isnt always causation. Lets look at the data.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
I hope by then the Convention of States will have adopted and 2/3’s of state legislatures ratified cutting the feds down to size so it won’t matter if you elect Donald Duck for POTUS becasue his or Hillary’s harmfulness will be severely limited.
And is Hillary so sure that the party is going to back her just like they DIDN'T the last time.
Bah, merely name recognition. Plus the faulty popular perception that “Clinton” had something to do with a good economy.
By election time the old bag will be even older, duller and more tired.
I’m not so sure. We better have a very strong candidate. Remember - the meme is “it’s time to have a woman president”, just like it was time to have a black president.
If Hillary is elected, I will seriously think about figuring out how to relocate to another country. I will not survive any more liberals.
RE: If Hillary is elected, I will seriously think about figuring out how to relocate to another country.
No harm in getting prepared now. Dual Passports can get you a long way :)
Not bad. With a little effort, Hillary could probably manage to be almost as good as Obama.
This woman has been a plague on us daily since at least 1992. Of course she polls like an incumbent.
How will anyone be able to tell, unless her handlers physically drop her? She already looks like she's been embalmed.
She ain’t gonna make it and the party isn’t going to risk it for a couple of has beens.
Bam’s the incumbent and he has 59% negatives now. Like that Hill?
Yep.
Cayman Islands, here I come, to live with near my daughter and hopefully grab the rest of my family too.
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