What will Romania do? That could muddy the waters a bit as well.
I don’t know that Romania will do anything. Maybe they’ll tighten border controls with it. But I’d have to think they’re not overly interested in bear-baiting. This is a well-armed slice of ex-USSR. They still even have the hammer and sickle in their flag. It’s been an unresolved issue for them since the early 90’s. There are young adults born in it and who have lived their whole lives in an ‘independent’ Transnistria. But it’s also a different ethnic make up to Crimea: my reading says it’s about a third Romanian ethnically, a third Ukrainian, and a third Russian, unlike the clear Russian majority in Crimea.