I am not close to that one, so hard to say. I feel pretty good about that pickup and NC, but our Senate campaigns have been so sorely lacking the past two cycles that I wouldn't be surprised to the see the Dems have some success in at least a couple races defending their incumbents. Arkansas is a such a mixed bag politically, that you just never know.
I think overall we are in a good position to pick up several open seats and beat Dem incumbents. It is going to be tough to pick off more than a one or two GOP incumbents...it's just the nature of the beast. Many here are so motivated to take on all comers, and then get down when a guy like Cornyn keeps his spot. These are hard races, and we would need really good alternatives to pull it off. Not all of these states have great alternatives. Getting Lee in Utah was a big win, as was Cruz in TX (although technically not against an incumbent). Getting rid of Lugar was big, too, although the general turned out to be a disaster. It's not easy to remove entrenched incumbents, and it takes a lot of things going right. Here, we see many getting emotionally high on picking off all these guys, and then very down when we don't. This is a long battle we have to change the Senate, and we won't win every time.
Very true... Plus, it's not good enough to just run "anybody but..." One bad candidate for Senate can hurt our chances all over the country.