Russia probably won’t intervene directly, but she will probably stoke unrest in Crimea and the South East to achieve an effective partition of Ukraine.
Agreed. The Eurasian Union won’t work without Ukraine. I can imagine a partitioned Ukraine in which the eastern half would be free to join the Customs Union Of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. I see this as the most probable outcome to the current crisis.
Be fair, the only reason Ukraine has the Crimea is Khrushchev gave it as a “gift” to win over the Ukrainians that he ruled over, when he was Stalin’s lackey there. Of course back in the Soviet Union, it really didn’t matter whether it belonged to the Russian SFSR or the Ukrainian SSR, Moscow still called the shots, regardless.
“Russia probably won’t intervene directly”
It doesn’t need to.
It suffice to turn down its gas tap.
80% of Ukraine energy comes from Russia.