Agreed. The Eurasian Union won’t work without Ukraine. I can imagine a partitioned Ukraine in which the eastern half would be free to join the Customs Union Of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. I see this as the most probable outcome to the current crisis.
Won't happen. The eastern part of Ukraine is where the oil fields are. What does Ukraine really have? Oil, plus the pipeline access from Russia to the Black Sea.
a great deal of the nation’s wealth resides in non-pro-Europe eastern Ukraine...For a country like Ukraine, the appeal of federalism, which divides authority between the central government and its constituent regions, is undeniable...According to Ukraine’s government statistics service, manufacturing contributes at least three times more than agriculture to the country’s gross domestic product. Thus, eastern regions generally have higher per capita GDP rates...Seven of Ukraine’s 10 largest private companies by revenue are either headquartered or maintain the majority of their operations in eastern Ukraine...
The country’s most important businessmen are embedded in the east, where their businesses make disproportionately high contributions to the Ukrainian economy and national budget. Westerners staunchly oppose federalism because they believe it would threaten their economic and security interests. Others believe it could dissolve Ukraine as a country, leaving the west weak and defenseless against the Russia-backed east. Whether or not these concerns are misplaced, federalism would in fact benefit eastern regions disproportionately by giving them more control over state revenue, aggravating the socioeconomic tensions between the regions.