Posted on 02/19/2014 5:45:41 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Putting aside the prospect of a Hillary Clinton candidacy for the 2016 presidential election, the GOP has an extremely hard row to hoe, or needle to thread if that analogy suits the situation, in the Electoral College.
If on election night 2016 the early returns show that Florida has gone for the Democratic candidate, that would be an indication of an early night for Republicans as there are no realistic Electoral College permutations that would give the GOP candidate a victory.
With Florida won and out of the way, all the "Romney" states won in 2012 also have to be won along with Ohio, that classic balance tipping state tipping into the Republican column. But even with Ohio on board the big problem for the GOP candidate is Virginia. If the influx into Northern Virginia which, allied to the increase in minority turnout for Obama, means that the state is now firmly in the D column then the path to the required 270 Electoral College votes appears doubtful if not impossible.
The best the Republican candidate could do without Virginia, and with both Colorado and Iowa, two states that went solidly for Obama in 2008/12 wrested back, is 268 Electoral College votes. This heartbreaking, desperately close result, would actually be one vote short of the 269 votes apiece tie that would be decided by a majority of state delegations in the House of Representatives (presumably with a Republican majority in 2016 as there is currently).
At this writing, both Iowa and Colorado are looking positive for the GOP but, barring a significant economic downturn, it is a huge task for those two states plus Ohio, plus one from New Mexico, Nevada, Michigan, or Wisconsin to end up in the Republican column.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Popular vote is irrelevant. Article II, section 1, of the Constitution.
Jeb vrs Hillary
Jeb will be handed the White House keys by the Big Money
nothing will change
Bush fatigue although GW would be a welcome sight right now. My choice: Ted Cruz-Alan West.
The electoral map will look different depending on who the nominees are. It is doubtful that the democrat will get 102% of the black vote again, which would make Florida, Virginia, and Ohio more winnable.
If the GOPe ignore us and run a RINO Hill will win in a landslide.
If you think the GOP will listen to conservatives,
you should get out more.
Speculating on a 269 electoral college is pretty much a waste right now. About as worthwhile as speculating that the 49ers will lose the Super Bowl by a field goal 3 years from now.
Plus, if we are losing Florida, we aren’t winning the other states mentioned. Other than Obama, FL’s been a solidly GOP state for over a decade. If we are losing it here, we’re in worse shape in other places than this scenario would point.
Actually it's my understand that essentially both the Popular vote AND the electoral college vote are irrelevant, and in the end the House of Representatives chooses the President. In the election of 1876, Samuel Tilden got more popular votes AND more electoral college votes than Rutherford B. Hayes. However, the House of Representatives, who must certify the electoral college vote, essentially declared the electoral votes of four states who went for Tilden were null and void, and instead awarded them to Hayes, giving him an electoral college win of 185 to 184. So the House essentially choose the president, over both the will of the public and the electoral college.
Not saying that the current Republican House would have the cajones to do something like that, (or even that they should if they did). But their IS precedent....
Considering the bull that the Supreme Court has pulled lately (Kelo, Citizen’s United, the Oh!Bama!Care mandate), there’s no telling what the 1%’ers can cook up.
The system is irreparably damaged.
But other than Hillary, they've got no-one rising to the top. Who would want to? A 'rat challenger will first have to beat the Clinton machine (heck, just survive) in the primaries then run against a GOP candidate who will be holding all the cards based on 'rat "leadership" over the past 8 years. (again, assuming the GOP candidate comes out swinging) 2016 is not going to be a good election cycle for any serious 'rat up and comer to throw his/her hat in the ring.
The GOP isn't much better, a few names keep coming up. From what I can see the election is going to be the GOP's to win or lose. If they run Jeb - Bush fatigue will kill them. If they run another RINO the TEA Party will kill them. If they run a moderate or centrist trying to reach across the aisle in the election the 'rats will beat him/her. This is not a time for half-**sed half measures. Another RINO and the GOP is done as a political party. (they're d**n near there now) A lot of GOP voters are fed up with RINOs and wishy-washy wimp candidates. We won't vote for the 'rats, but we will vote with our feet - either abstaining or voting for the real conservative candidate, pulling votes away from a poorly chosen GOP candidate. You had better listen GOP - you can win or lose in '16, it is entirely up to you.
With their declared war on the conservative wing of the base, the GOP will lose seats in the Senate and will lose the House outright in NOV.
The “leaders” of the party learned nothing from 2012.
The Democrats have locked-down the presidency in 2016
by neutralizing Colorado with dope, and Virginia with
scumbag McAuliffe.
They aren't speculating on 269 EVs. They are speculating on the Tier 1 states and Florida is the only Tier 1 state in play.
The dem is going to win NY(29) and CA(55) for 84 total.
The GOP will win Tx(38) and if he wins FL(29) for a total 67, he is close enough to make it up in the Tier 2 and Tier 3 states. If the GOP loses FL, the dem is ahead 113 to 38, and there is essentially no way the GOPer can make up the deficit.
In 2000 Bush won florida with 700 votes, only because 90,000 votes were syphoned away from Gore. But that didn't win for Bush. He ultimately won with the handful of electoral votes from the Tier 3 state of WV.
In 2008 McCain got the nomination because he was the only GOP candidate who had a remote chance of winning Florida, and when it became apparent that he would lose FL, then he had to win with 3 of 4 from IL, MI, PA, OH.
That's what led to one of the big fights in the campaign. Palin wanted to go MI and McCain was telling her to go to PA.
You make some good points.
I’ve said on here for a while now that I don’t think Hillary! will run in 2016. One person that I think might throw his hat in the ring is Jerry Brown. Call me crazy.
To some extent, I don’t even know why we bother discussing these things- we have a system in which GOP consultants and ad-makers are guaranteed to rake in hundreds of millions of dollars in 2016, win or lose. (And as always, the only spark of energy will be when it comes to carpet-bombing Conservative opponents in the primaries).
As long as that is the case, Republicans will continue to be exploited by opportunists.
I’m opening myself up for attack here, but, this is further proof that we need a candidate with a Hispanic surname. The name “Cruz” comes to mind.
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